British homes will need air conditioning to withstand expected levels of global heating, the government’s climate advisers have warned in a report, saying measures such as drawing curtains, opening windows and growing trees for shade are unlikely to be enough.
Air conditioning must be installed in all care homes and hospitals within the next 10 years, and in all schools within 25 years, according to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which released a major report on adapting to the effects of global warming on Wednesday.
The government should also set maximum temperatures for indoor and outdoor work, advisers said. The UK needs to prepare for 2°C of global warming by 2050, as attempts to limit temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels under the Paris Agreement are likely to fail.
By 2050, heatwaves are expected to exceed 40 degrees across the UK. The hot spells will be longer and there could be an additional 10,000 heat-related deaths per year. Approximately 9 out of 10 homes in the UK can overheat.
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CCC Adaptation Subcommittee Chair Julia King said that of the many climate threats listed in the report, extreme heat poses the most immediate threat to life. “Extreme heat is certainly the most deadly of climate impacts on the UK, so we need to introduce massive cooling measures,” she said.
“Sometimes we need shade, and sometimes we need air conditioning. Either way, we have to get serious about protecting the most vulnerable in our hospitals, care homes and schools.”
Current air conditioning systems are energy intensive and are thought to be responsible for approximately 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Photo: mar-fre/Alamy
Temperatures could exceed 40 degrees Celsius in 2022, causing around 3,000 excess deaths, and periods of extreme heat could become the “new normal.” Rather than installing air conditioning everywhere, people could choose to have just one cool room to use during heatwaves, the report said.
However, air conditioning is energy intensive and accounts for approximately 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Modern, more efficient systems can use heat pumps. Heat pumps are already subsidized by the government as an alternative to gas boilers, but are currently rarely installed.
92% of UK homes will be at risk of overheating by 2050
Sam Alvis, head of energy security at IPPR think tank, called for more solar panels to be installed on rooftops alongside air conditioning. “We have to get used to being a hot country. This is quite a mindset change for the UK,” he said. “Actually, from an energy system perspective, air conditioning is very compatible with solar power because supply and demand match, and air conditioning is only needed above a certain temperature.”
Emma Howard-Boyd, a professor of practice at the London School of Economics, said the heat was already killing people but received too little attention. “We can’t continue to treat heat resistance as an afterthought,” she said. “This sits at the very top of the national resilience agenda and Britain’s broader prosperity, alongside flood preparedness and water security.”
The climate crisis is costing the UK around £60 billion a year, or around 2% of gross domestic product (GDP), including flood damage and crop losses for farmers. “The UK was built for a climate that does not currently exist and will move further and further away from it in the coming years,” the report said.
Low water levels in the Longdendale reservoir in the UK. The report suggests that water shortages could reach 5 billion liters daily by 2050. Photo: Bloomberg/Getty Images
The committee also found that:
The number of UK properties at risk of flooding could rise by 40% by 40% and peak river flows by 45% by 2050 if no action is taken. Sea levels could rise by 20 to 45 centimeters, putting some coastal areas at risk and the intensity of heavy rain could increase by 60%. If temperatures rise by 4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, storm surges that currently occur once every 100 years will occur every year.
Natural flood defenses such as wetlands and “meandering” rivers will not be enough and more concrete flood walls will be needed.
Droughts will also become more frequent. Summer river flows are likely to be around a third lower than they were 20 years ago, and by 2050 the water shortage could reach 5 billion liters each day, the equivalent of about 2,000 Olympic swimming pools, or a small reservoir. More reservoirs need to be built to avoid the serious risk of running out of taps.
By 2100, summers as dry as 2018 and 1976 will be the norm. Even by 2050, the number of high-risk days for wildfires could double, and wildfire season could extend into early fall.
Schools need to consider the effects of heat on students taking exams. This relates not only to the temperature of the classroom, but also to students’ ability to sleep at night when the temperature is above 20 degrees.
Domestic food production is under threat and the government should take steps to ensure at least 60% of the UK’s food continues to be produced domestically. The fall in crop yields for UK farmers could lead to higher food prices, potentially causing disasters overseas.
The CCC estimates that protecting people and infrastructure costs around £11 billion a year, with around half of this coming from the private sector. But for every £1 spent, we get around £5 in returns, and the UK invests 50 times this amount every year, some of it in infrastructure that exacerbates the climate crisis and our vulnerability to it.
Britain’s hottest temperature recorded
The cost of inaction has increased from around £60bn a year and could reach £260bn a year in just over 20 years.
The CCC found that none of the UK’s existing national adaptation plans, produced by the devolved governments, were fit for purpose. Dr. King said reducing greenhouse gas emissions to prepare for and mitigate the effects of the climate crisis should be treated as a matter of national security.
“If we make the right decisions, we can protect the people and places we love,” she said. “So it’s a strong message that decline is a choice, it’s a political choice, it’s not inevitable. We can do something about it.”
Water supplies also require urgent attention. “We are facing a world in which in 2050 we may turn on the faucet and nothing will come out,” King said. “We need newer reservoirs. We need to be able to move water around the country. We need to address leakages and we need to work on water efficiency.”
Secretary of State for the Environment Emma Reynolds did not make any new financial commitments following the CCC’s recommendations, but said the Government had already taken action. “We invested a record £2.65 billion to repair and build flood defences, protect tens of thousands of homes and businesses and committed the largest green agriculture budget in history to support sustainable food production and security,” she said.
