WASHINGTON (AP) – In the next five years, the Earth is likely to rise by an overwhelming amount again and again New climate projections from the United Nations say the world will surpass international climate standards set as safe and break records for the hottest year in the process.
The World Meteorological Organization also predicts that Arctic temperatures will heat up by nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.66 degrees Celsius) between now and 2030, leading to a dangerous drought with the potential for wildfires in the Amazon, reducing key parts of the planet’s natural defenses. human-induced climate change. Scientists say burning coal, oil and gas will make the planet hotter, meaning more extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and heat waves.
The United Nations Climate Organization and the UK Met Office predict that between 2026 and 2030, there is a 75% chance that average global temperatures will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than pre-industrial levels. that Thresholds are agreed limits on warming — 20-year average — set in 2015 by the Paris Climate Agreement.
A United Nations scientific report a few years later detailed how the odds increase beyond that 1.5 mark. death, danger, loss of species. Some of the Earth’s ecosystems, such as corals and glaciers, cannot withstand this strain, even if it only happens once every tenth of a second.
There is an impact on passing the global warming threshold, but there is no cliff.
There is a 91% chance that at least one year in the next five years will exceed the 1.5 degree threshold, and an 86% chance that one of those years will break the temperature record. Hottest year on Earth set for 2024says the WMO report. WMO predicts that annual temperatures between now and 2030 will be between 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) and 1.9 degrees Celsius (3.4 degrees Fahrenheit) than since the late 1800s.
“It’s important to note that (1.5) is not some kind of cliff we’re about to fall off,” said report co-author Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the Met Office. “Every tenth of a degree of any kind has increasingly severe effects.”
she pointed Unprecedented May heat in Europe this week.
More than a year above 1.5 degrees “represents a full range of extreme weather conditions, many of which are probably more extreme than what we’ve seen in the past and, crucially, what urban planning, agriculture, etc. expected,” Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College of London, who was not involved in the report, said in an email. “This means more people will die, more food price shocks and more intense wildfires.”
In almost all short-term forecasts, strong El Nino phenomenon This is a natural warming of parts of the central Pacific region that will soon occur, changing weather around the world and causing global temperatures to soar. The WMO report says the heatwave could continue until 2028. As a result, Seabrook said 2027 will likely break the 2024 heat record.
And if we were to increase an average of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels over the next five years, the Earth would warm by a quarter of a degree Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) in 10 years, faster than the previous rate of warming. These were close to two-tenths of a degree Celsius per decade.
climate scientists are debating As for whether global warming is accelerating, Seabrook said it’s “obviously very frightening” and that if these predictions come true, they would provide further evidence to those who see the rate of change accelerating.
Forecast for accelerating Arctic warmth
The projections are based on an average of about 200 computer simulation runs using 13 different climate models for different countries and include: Arctic warming It’s rising 3.5 times faster than the rest of the planet because there’s less ice and snow to reflect solar radiation back into space, Seabrook said. It becomes a vicious cycle.
“As temperatures rise, more sea ice will melt, making things even worse,” Seabrook said.
The 2020-2025 Arctic winter was on average 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1991-2020 average. Seabrook said winters over the next five years are expected to be, on average, 5.1 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 degrees Celsius) warmer than recent normal years.
The report predicts: Arctic sea ice continues to shrink In the summer.
Amazon could become even drier, raising concerns about fires
Report predicts even warmer and more extreme temperatures Dry conditions in the Amazon basinand that could be devastating for both local residents and the entire planet, Seabrook said.
Seabrook said people depend on the Amazon for water and a hotter, drier environment should increase the risk of wildfires, potentially turning the Amazon into a region that sucks heat-trapping carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, exacerbating the problem.
Seabrook said Africa’s Sahel region is particularly dry and could receive more rain than normal, leading to flooding.
United Nations officials said efforts to curb climate change are not enough.
“Despite recent progress, it is clear that global warming is still outpacing global efforts to limit warming, and hot temperatures in Europe, India and other regions demonstrate once again that the humans still burning vast amounts of coal, oil and gas are having a brutal impact on people and economies,” UN climate chief Simon Stiel said of the WMO report.
“Countries are already paying a huge price in this global climate crisis, with extreme heat, superstorms, floods, massive wildfires, and droughts hitting food supplies and prices,” he said.
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