Cobalt is a key ingredient in lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems, but new research suggests the global cobalt supply chain may be much more vulnerable than previously realized. Rather than being confined to a single shortage, disruptions in one country or production stage can spread through networks and cause cascading failures across multiple regions and industries.
By combining material flow analysis and multilayer shock propagation models, the researchers found that risks often occur in the upstream parts of the supply chain, but are most severe at key refining and manufacturing bottlenecks. This study shows that shocks can travel through both horizontal and vertical paths and direct and indirect connections, causing long chains of disruption and sudden failure. These findings suggest that traditional country-specific risk assessments do not capture the full scope of cobalt supply chain vulnerabilities and that coordinated system-wide strategies are needed to strengthen resilience.
Rising demand and increasing supply chain risk
Rapid growth in electric vehicles and large-scale energy storage is driving demand for cobalt soaring. As a result, there are growing concerns about security of supply, geopolitical concentration, and environmental and social challenges.
Many existing studies evaluate important minerals by examining individual countries, materials, and trade flows separately. However, modern supply chains are highly interconnected, linking suppliers, manufacturers, and consumers in complex relationships across multiple stages of production. Recent events such as export restrictions, trade disputes, and pandemic-related disruptions demonstrate how quickly local issues can spread through global production networks.
Despite these risks, many current analytical methods struggle to account for how disruptions occur simultaneously in different countries and production stages. This limitation highlights the need for a broader network-based approach to understanding cobalt supply chain vulnerabilities.
Mapping the global cobalt network
In a study published online in late 2025, Environmental science and ecotechnologyresearchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Peking University, the University of Southern Denmark, and other institutions investigated global cobalt flows from 1998 to 2019.
The team built a multi-layer supply chain model and applied an iterative shock propagation framework to track how disruptions move across countries and through the six stages of cobalt’s lifecycle, including mining, refining, manufacturing, use and recycling. The resulting analysis provides one of the most detailed examinations of systemic risk in the global cobalt supply chain to date.
To conduct this study, researchers built a network connecting 230 countries across six interconnected production stages. By combining trade-based material flow analysis with dynamic shock propagation models, we were able to simulate how a supply shortage or drop in demand at a single point in the network would ripple through the broader system.
Their simulations show that disruptions alternate between direct and indirect paths, often moving not only international trade links but also domestic production chains. Mining interruptions, especially in highly concentrated upstream areas, are often the first source of risk. However, the most severe consequences tend to appear late in “bridge” refining and manufacturing, where tight connections between manufacturing stages amplify failures.
Hidden interdependencies increase vulnerability
The researchers found that the resulting “avalanche network” of potential failures was about four times denser than the underlying physical trading network. This finding points to a wide range of hidden interdependencies that are not apparent when examining trade relationships alone.
Countries including China and the United States exhibited particularly high levels of system vulnerability. In such cases, disruptions within the supply chain can cause widespread disruption across global networks. At the same time, some countries with relatively modest production volumes have been found to be highly exposed to random disruptions and lack sufficient resilience to respond effectively.
The study also found that risk tends to increase over time. Over the past two decades, global cobalt supply vulnerabilities have generally increased and become more volatile due to increased concentration and demand-supply imbalances within supply chains.
Why the cobalt supply chain is ‘robust but fragile’
The cobalt supply chain exhibits a “robust but fragile” structure, the authors said. In practice, this means that while the system can withstand many small, random interruptions, it is still very sensitive to targeted shocks that affect critical nodes.
Researchers say measures such as national stockpile programs and efforts to relocate production could reduce the risk for countries. However, these actions may also transfer vulnerabilities to other parts of the network rather than completely eliminating them.
They argue that improving resilience requires coordinated strategies that consider the linkages between upstream and downstream production stages. Focusing solely on national interests without considering these broader relationships can unintentionally exacerbate instability throughout the world system.
Impact on energy security and clean technology
This discovery has important implications for energy policy, critical mineral management, and industrial planning. By identifying where risks originate, accumulate, and spread, this framework could help support early warning systems for supply disruptions and improve international cooperation.
Policymakers could use these insights to develop shared stockpiling programs, diversify refining and manufacturing capacity, and better assess the broader impact of trade restrictions and economic decoupling strategies.
Although the research focuses on cobalt, the same approach could be applied to other important materials that support battery manufacturing and clean energy technologies. Ultimately, this study suggests that a successful low-carbon transition will depend not only on ensuring access to essential resources, but also on understanding and managing the complex global networks through which those resources flow.
