Published in Nicotine and tobacco researchThis study analyzed repeated cross-sectional survey data from 9,996 participants aged 16 years and older who reported current smoking. They found that while most smokers (76.9%) reported purchasing cigarettes only from legal sources, in 2025 23.1% reported purchasing cigarettes from an illegal source at least once in the past six months, up from 12.2% in 2023.
Our findings suggest that more smokers are turning to illicit tobacco sources compared to 2023.
This may partly reflect the economic pressures many have faced in recent years as people look for ways to reduce the cost of smoking, including switching to cheaper legal products, cutting back on how much they smoke, or attempting to quit altogether. ”
Professor Sarah Jackson, Lead author, UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Healthcare
Senior author Professor Jamie Brown, from the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Healthcare, said: “While our findings suggest that the proportion of smokers purchasing some or all of their smokes from illicit sources is increasing, this does not necessarily mean that the illicit market itself has become much larger.”
“Our study looked at whether people bought cigarettes from different sources, but not the frequency of purchases or the amount of cigarettes they bought from each source, which are important factors in the size of the illicit market.”
Hazel Cheeseman, chief executive of Action on Smoking and Health (ASH), who was not involved in the study, said: “While official government estimates do not show that the overall size of the illicit tobacco market has increased recently, it is estimated that the illicit tobacco market has declined significantly since the turn of the century.”
“However, this study cautions governments not to rest on their laurels with past successes in controlling illicit tobacco. While the findings do not necessarily indicate a significant expansion of the illicit market, they do suggest the need to continue to closely monitor trends and sustain efforts to prevent illicit tobacco sales.”
This study provides a snapshot of demographic trends in tobacco purchasing habits ahead of the rollout of the Tobacco and Vape Act smokeless production policy in the UK, which made the sale of tobacco illegal to people born on or after 1 January 2009.
The tobacco industry has argued that smokeless power policies will increase illegal trade. However, previous modeling studies suggest that demand for cigarettes could decline significantly, reducing both legal and illicit markets.
The main illicit sources reported in the study included cigarettes bought cheaply from friends and cigarettes sold ‘under the counter’ through legal outlets such as newsagents, corner shops and unlicensed outlets.
The study also found that, consistent with long-term trends, more participants under the legal selling age reported purchasing cigarettes from legal retailers. Among 16- to 17-year-olds who have purchased cigarettes, 73.6% said they had purchased cigarettes from a newsagent or corner store.
Professor Jackson said: “We were concerned about the number of underage participants reporting having purchased cigarettes from a regular retail store. As the smoke-free generation policy is introduced and the age of sale gradually increases, it is expected that access to cigarettes will become more difficult for teenagers.”
He added: “The success of this policy will depend not only on changing the law, but also on ensuring it is followed. Effective enforcement and clear communication with retailers and the public will be essential, alongside continued efforts to reduce demand by helping more people quit smoking or switch to less harmful nicotine.”
The survey also found that most smokers still buy their cigarettes at traditional retailers such as supermarkets and corner stores. Although cross-border purchases increased during the study period as international travel resumed after the pandemic, online purchases remained uncommon.
Dr Ian Walker, executive director of policy and information at Cancer Research UK, said: “While this research does not show that the illicit tobacco market is growing, it is concerning that more people are buying cigarettes from illicit sources at a time when the proportion of smokers is falling. This highlights the need for greater enforcement.”
“Tobacco still causes around 160 cancer cases every day in the UK, so action is essential to reduce smoking rates. The Tobacco and Vape Act will help protect future generations from the harms of tobacco, but the UK Government must also back up this historic legislation with sustained investment to tackle illegal tobacco sales, alongside support to help people quit smoking.”
Long-term trends from the same study show that both smoking prevalence among smokers and cigarette consumption have declined significantly over the past 20 years.
Research limitations
Although this study represents a large and robust population sample surveyed over multiple years, it relies on self-reported data and is therefore subject to bias regarding survey respondents’ recall and social desirability.
The survey did not capture how often respondents purchased cigarettes from different sources, which could mean that some purchasing routes are under- or over-represented.
The study also did not measure the amount of cigarettes respondents purchased from different sources, limiting the ability to draw conclusions about changes in the overall size of the illicit tobacco market.
Online purchases may also be underestimated if respondents who purchased tobacco products through online grocery services reported their source as “supermarket” rather than “Internet.”
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university college london
Reference magazines:
jackson, south carolina, Others. (2026) Cigarette and hand-rolled tobacco purchasing patterns evolving ahead of smokeless electricity generation legislation in the UK: Population Survey, 2020-2025. Nicotine and tobacco research. DOI: 10.1093/ntr/ntag133. https://academic.oup.com/ntr/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/ntr/ntag133
