Recent research published in Quarterly Political Survey Research shows evidence that public support for transgender women participating in women’s sports decreased significantly between 2019 and 2024. This shift suggests that it is related to political messages that position transgender women as a threat to female athletes, particularly influencing conservative voters. These findings highlight how laws originally designed to prevent discrimination can be reinterpreted to exclude newly visible minority groups.
Political scientists James N. Druckmann and Elizabeth A. Shallow conducted this study to understand how societies decide who belongs to particular protected groups. In the United States, certain groups enjoy legal protection based on their social identities, such as race, religion, and gender.
As new groups seek recognition and legal protection, debates often arise over the precise boundaries of these categories. Researchers base their research on social categorization theory. This concept outlines how people understand who belongs to marginalized groups.
This process involves a person’s identity, how society perceives that person, and how legal institutions define groups. When these three levels are not fully aligned, political actors may take advantage of the disconnect. They often do this by introducing exclusionary frames, a particular type of messaging that socially constructs minority groups as dangerous or deviant.
For the researchers, the initial data collection happened by chance. “We wrote a book about gender equality in college sports and looked at why more aggressive policies toward gender equality have not been implemented in the post-Title IX era,” said Druckmann, the Martin Brewer-Anderson Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester. “We collected data for the book. unmet equalityheld in 2018-2019 with student-athletes, coaches, sports administrators, and the general public. ”
Researchers collected public opinion information without realizing how important it would be. “Those surveys included items measuring attitudes about transgender athletes participating in teams that align with their gender identity,” Druckmann said. At that time, scientists did not use that particular data in their books.
“Since then, the issue of transgender sports participation has become so salient and politicized that we leveraged previous data and collected new data in 2024 to see if changes had occurred after a period of intense politicization,” Druckmann said. To assess these changes, the researchers analyzed data from two different public opinion polls. The first survey was conducted in spring 2019 and included 1,508 American adults.
The second survey was conducted in August 2024 and surveyed 1,506 American adults. In both surveys, respondents answered questions about their political affiliation and attitudes toward sports. A key measure asked participants to rate their support for allowing transgender women to participate on women’s college athletic teams.
Participants answered on a seven-point scale ranging from “strongly disagree” to “strongly support.” The survey also measured public support for Title IX. This is a federal civil rights law designed to ensure equal treatment and opportunity for men and women in education and school sports.
Participants were given a brief definition of Title IX and asked to rate their agreement with its requirements. In their analysis, scientists considered a variety of factors that can influence a person’s opinion. These variables include age, education level, race, income, and personal beliefs about gender roles.
We also controlled for sports-related experience, such as whether the respondent had participated in a varsity sport in college or was currently coaching a team. The data shows a major shift in public opinion. “The main finding is that support for transgender women/girls participation in teams decreased significantly over the five-year period from 2019 to 2024,” Druckmann told SciPost.
“Furthermore, for Republicans, the relationship between support for gender equality policies (Title IX) and support for trans inclusion reversed from positive to negative,” Druckmann continued. Researchers suggest this reversal occurred because conservative voters internalized the new message. “This shift likely reflects rhetoric around the issue that emphasizes the threat of transgender participation for cisgender women,” Druckmann added.
Druckmann said the result was somewhat unexpected and pointed to a complete shift in Republican attitudes. “To the extent of the aforementioned reversal, we thought the relationship would change, but not completely reverse,” he said. Trends differed among Democratic respondents, with those who supported Title IX in 2024 still more likely to support transgender inclusion.
For the 2024 survey, scientists added several new questions to get a broader picture of public opinion. These additional questions asked about support for transgender youth playing on women’s teams and support for government bans on transgender athletes. A new survey asked respondents how much they perceive transgender women in sports as a cultural threat.
The answers to these new questions reflected political divisions. Researchers found that Republicans who supported Title IX were more likely to view transgender women as a cultural threat. Democrats who supported Title IX did not respond to this same threat.
Although the published studies focused on the general public, researchers noticed a broader pattern. “Although this paper only looks at the general population, we find similar results for people in athletics,” Druckmann said.
Although this study provides a detailed analysis of changes in public opinion, the findings have some limitations. “Yes, the data is a cross-section of two, so we don’t know how individuals have changed,” Druckmann explained. This means the researchers surveyed different groups of people in 2019 and 2024, rather than tracking the exact same individuals over time.
Moreover, scientists are unable to definitively prove the cause of the change in attitude. “We also don’t know the exact causal mechanism, whether it was rhetoric, experience, etc.,” Druckmann said. Another limitation includes the range of questions asked in the original 2019 survey.
The original survey was designed for a slightly different project and did not include questions about respondents’ religious beliefs or traditional moral values. Future research could incorporate these variables to better understand the personal beliefs that drive opposition to transgender rights. Scientists will continue to study how people categorize their social identities.
“We want to understand how opinions change on issues involving individuals with vague claims to belonging to a category,” Druckmann said. “Here we have transgender women in the category of playing women’s sports.”
The study, “The Politics of Social Classification: The Case of Transgender Women’s Movement Participation in the United States,” was authored by James N. Druckmann and Elizabeth A. Sharrow.
