Recent research published in acta sociologica This suggests that partner fathers who worry about impending divorce tend to increase their distrust of political institutions over time. This study shows that subjective fear of family instability can spill over into broader dissatisfaction with government officials. These findings highlight unique sources of political dissatisfaction among men and shift focus away from traditional economic explanations.
Staffan Kumlin conducted this study to better understand the growing gender gap in political orientation across Western democracies. Kumlin is a professor and head of doctoral research in political science at the University of Oslo. he is also the author of the book Electoral campaigns and welfare state transformation: Democratic coalitions and leadership under pressure.published by Oxford University Press.
Kumlin was motivated by the widening political gender gap in Western societies, particularly the escalating debate over support for populist parties and general trust in mainstream institutions. “We currently lack a complete explanation of why these disparities appear to be widening, and in particular why they are often greater among young people and, to some extent, middle-aged people,” Kumlin explained. He noted that while economic status insecurity and cultural conservatism play a role, they alone do not fully explain the situation at hand.
To find the missing piece to this puzzle, Kumlin shifted attention from labor markets and cultural debates to the realm of the family. Sociologists point out that separations are rarely sudden, but rather involve long periods of disruption and cumulative psychological distress. Kumlin suspected that such subjective concerns could have political consequences even before a physical or legal schism occurs.
Because the modern welfare state has a significant responsibility for the well-being of its citizens, people experiencing personal suffering often respond with diffused political discontent. When individuals lack accurate information about which government agency is responsible for their struggles, personal anxiety tends to manifest itself in general distrust of democratic institutions. Kumlin investigated two potential reasons why relationship instability could cause this response, paying particular attention to how these effects differ by gender.
The first idea involves a loss of political communication between partners. Now, in many Western countries, women tend to vote at higher rates and report higher levels of political trust, so men in a souring relationship may lose positive civic influence from their partners. This loss of cross-gender sociability could theoretically lead to a decline in political trust among men.
The second idea is based on the different realities that men and women face after separation. Women typically experience a sharp financial decline after divorce, primarily due to pre-existing income disparities. However, previous research has shown that women are generally less likely to change their political views based on personal economic grievances.
Because children often spend more time with their mothers after separation, men often face severe social exclusion and a diminished role in raising children. Kumlin predicted that fear of divorce would generate the strongest political distrust among fathers, as historical data shows that men react very negatively to this loss of family involvement.
To test these ideas, Kumlin used data from a Norwegian study that interviewed the same group of people repeatedly over three years. This type of research design is known as a longitudinal panel study, and allows scientists to observe how individuals’ attitudes change over time. Data was collected in three separate periods: 2014, 2015, and 2017.
The initial sample included 5,420 participants. The second wave retained many of these individuals while also adding new respondents, for a total of 5,008 respondents. The final wave included 1,560 people who had previously participated. Respondents were adults aged 18 to 75 and broadly representative of the Norwegian population across different life stages.
The survey asked participants how likely they were to break up with their partner within the next 12 months. Respondents chose from a four-point scale ranging from “not at all likely” to “very likely.” Kumlin also accounted for other subjective insecurities, such as poverty, unemployment, and poor health, to ensure that the specific effects of relationship instability are isolated.
Most of the variation in relationship responses occurred between those who perceived zero risk and those who perceived mild risk. Few participants were convinced that legal divorce was imminent. To measure political distrust, the study used an index that combines four survey items that assess participants’ trust in political parties, parliament, the government, and local city councils.
To evaluate the results, Kumlin used a statistical model designed to distinguish between short-term emotional responses and long-term attitude changes. The analysis revealed that perceived divorce risk did not have a uniform effect on all respondents. There were no widespread negative effects on political trust among partnered women or among partnered and childless men.
Other subjective concerns about health and employment also did not produce gender differences in political trust. Rather, the data provide evidence that the political consequences of relationship instability are highly specific to fathers. Kumlin found that deep-seated fears about divorce offset the standard development of political trust typically seen in this demographic.
Men who are in stable relationships, have children, and are highly educated typically experience increased political trust over time. However, this positive trend disappeared once these highly educated fathers realized the risk of divorce. For fathers with low levels of education, an additional year of relationship insecurity led to a positive decline in fathers’ political trust.
“The association between persistently perceived risk of divorce and loss of political trust over time is very pronounced and quite strong among married men with children,” Kumlin told SciPost. He added that while the association is moderately strong at best, its very existence is revealing because it shows how subjective concerns can become politically important. He emphasized that final legal and physical separation is not necessary for underlying thought processes to surface.
Kumlin also investigated whether this political distrust is simply a byproduct of a loss of faith in humanity. He found that the decline in political trust occurred independently of generalized social trust. This suggests that the fathers not only became cynical about people in general, but also developed a particular frustration with democratic institutions.
Although this research provides new perspectives on political behavior, it also has limitations. Because the study relies on observational survey data, it tracks natural changes in the population but cannot conclusively prove causation. Unmeasured factors, such as underlying personality traits, may simultaneously cause marital anxiety and distrust of government.
Future studies may extend these findings by using more survey waves and following families over longer periods of time. Researchers might also investigate the precise cognitive leaps men make between family instability and government officials. Ultimately, Kumlin hopes the public will recognize that “participation in family life, caregiving, and parental involvement are important for democratic inclusion and trust, especially among men.”
The study, “Divorce Risk and Political Distrust: The Gendered Effects of Marital Instability,” was authored by Staffan Kumlin.
