An analysis of Project TALENT data (1960s) found that general mental ability and conscientiousness were the best predictors of a student’s college grade point average (GPA). Contrary to expectations, mathematical knowledge did not improve predictions beyond these two factors. The paper is intelligence and cognitive ability.
General mental abilities are the broad abilities to learn, reason, solve problems, understand complex ideas, and adapt to new situations. This includes abilities such as verbal reasoning, numerical reasoning, memory, abstract thinking, and efficient information processing. It predicts how quickly and effectively people can learn new content, make decisions, and perform complex school and work tasks. Therefore, general mental ability is one of the strongest predictors of student learning, training success, and overall academic performance.
However, it is not the only factor that determines a student’s performance in college. The personality trait of conscientiousness is also an important predictor, as students who are organized, disciplined, and persistent typically complete assignments and prepare for exams more consistently. Motivation is also important because students who value studying and believe that effort is important are more likely to invest time and energy. Other factors, such as past academic performance, ability for self-regulated learning, and socio-economic status, are also associated with academic performance in college.
Study author Jeffrey M. Cucina and his colleagues investigated the extent to which a battery of mental ability tests, high school grade point averages, and measures of conscientiousness predicted college performance, expressed as college grade point average (GPA). The authors hypothesized that general mental ability, rather than specific abilities, would predict college performance, and that adding a conscientiousness factor would further improve prediction accuracy.
They also expected that conscientiousness would interact synergistically with ability, meaning that motivation would exponentially increase the effect of ability. Finally, based on previous research, they expected that mathematical knowledge would provide predictive value beyond general cognitive ability and that high school GPA would act as a mediator between these characteristics and success in college.
The researchers used data from Project TALENT, a comprehensive longitudinal study conducted in the 1960s and 1970s that followed more than 300,000 high school students. The current study focused on a subset of 35,446 participants who completed a follow-up assessment five years after graduating from high school, earned a bachelor’s degree, and self-reported their final college GPA.
Researchers analyzed participants’ high school GPA, college GPA, conscientiousness scores, and results from 59 different tests of mental ability. These tests covered general mental ability, spatial ability, general information, perceptual speed, memory, and mathematical ability.
Results showed that general mental ability and conscientiousness independently predicted college GPA. Although general mental ability was a stronger predictor, predictive accuracy measurably improved when conscientiousness was included in the statistical model. Once general intelligence was taken into account, most of the specific ability tests provided no additional predictive power, except for tests measuring the function of words in sentences. Contrary to researchers’ expectations, mathematical knowledge does not make predictions more accurate.
Furthermore, this study did not find a synergistic interaction between conscientiousness and general mental ability, meaning that a strong work ethic and high intelligence contribute to college success on their own, rather than multiplying each other’s effects. The researchers also confirmed that high school GPA played a mediating role. High intelligence and conscientiousness help students perform well in high school, which in turn strongly predicts high performance in college.
“These findings are consistent with industrial/organizational psychology research on job performance and reinforce the superiority of g (general mental ability) over specific abilities in academic settings. Despite limitations such as the age of the data and reliance on self-reported GPAs, the results highlight the importance of g and integrity in college admissions and suggest that admissions tests derive their validity primarily from measuring general cognitive abilities rather than specific aptitudes,” the study authors concluded.
This study contributes to the scientific understanding of the factors that determine academic performance. However, the data used in this study is more than half a century old, and the study authors note that the results need to be validated with more recent data. Additionally, it relies on the university’s self-reported GPA, which may result in some inaccuracies compared to official transcripts.
The paper, “The Role of Mental Capacity and Integrity in Explaining College Performance,” was authored by Jeffrey M. Kushina, Kevin A. Beil, and Scott K. Bartnick.
