President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he wanted to “get Iranian oil” by taking control of key export hubs, repeating his stance of restraint for more than a decade.
Experts say this reflects his disregard for international law and his belief in “fossil fuel imperialism.”
“President Trump truly believes that the United States is entitled to whatever resources it wants,” said Patrick Biggar, co-director of the Transition Security Project, a research initiative focused on climate and geopolitical concerns of militarization. “This is exactly the logic that “might be right,” and it is both abhorrent and a spectacular miscalculation.”
President Trump is scheduled to provide an update on the Iran war on Wednesday. He said on Tuesday that the conflict could end within weeks, sending stock markets soaring on hopes of easing tensions.
But Iran says it needs guarantees against future attacks to stop a counterattack. And for now the war continues. Iran attacked a fully loaded crude oil tanker docked at Dubai port on Monday. And earlier on Monday, the president said the United States plans to “blow up and completely destroy” Iran’s energy infrastructure if the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz is not reopened “immediately” and a peace deal is not reached “soon.” (Iran effectively closed off the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic after the outbreak of war in late February.)
This includes Kharg Island, a five-mile strip from which 90% of Iran’s oil is exported, and its power plants and oil wells.
A day earlier, President Trump told the Financial Times that he wanted the U.S. military to seize Kharg Island and the oil there.
“Honestly, what I like most is getting oil in Iran,” he said. “But some stupid people back in the U.S. say, ‘Why would you do that?'” But they’re stupid people. ”
Amir Khanjani, an energy lawyer and resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible State Strategy, a think tank that promotes military restraint and diplomacy, said in a statement Sunday that President Trump’s credibility for the war against Iran has been “completely discredited.”
“This undermines all the other reasons President Trump has given for pursuing this war and makes it look like a game over natural resources, which everyone always suspects when the U.S. engages in military conflict,” said Handjani, who is also a partner at communications firm Kalb Global.
A view of oil facilities on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, about 1,250 kilometers (776 miles) south of Tehran in 2016. Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Mr. Khanjani pointed out that President Trump has for decades expressed an interest in seizing that very export hub. In a 1988 interview while in Britain promoting his book The Art of the Deal, he told Polly Toynbee of the Guardian that if he became president he would be “tough on Iran”.
“I’m going to do some numbers on Kharg Island. I’ll go and shoot it,” he said. “It would be good for the world to play against them.”
Iran is not the only country President Trump has asked for oil from the United States. During his first presidential campaign, he repeatedly suggested that the Bush administration should have seized Iraqi oil to “reimburse” the costs of the conflict.
“It was a stupid thing to say, because it’s not like the Iraqi people saying to the United States, ‘Come and invade us and overthrow our government…we’ll pay you back with oil,'” Handjani said.
Once in the White House, he laid out a similar approach regarding Syria, saying that because of the U.S. intervention in the region, the U.S. has a right to the country’s oil and suggesting that Exxon Mobil could lead an effort to take over those resources. And late last year, as he stepped up his campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, he suggested that oil seized from Venezuela could be treated as U.S. property, telling reporters: “We might sell it, we might keep it, we might use it for strategic stockpiles.”
It is also illegal to wage war to acquire another country’s national resources, Handjani said.
“There is no legal framework for waging war to seize the natural resources of a sovereign nation,” he said. “There is no provision in international law or the rules of war that recognizes this.”
Kharg Island
It would not be easy to actually capture Kharg Island or launch an all-out attack. That is especially true as Iranian missiles have crippled U.S. military bases in the region.
Marines would likely have to parachute to enter the area, which would put them in the middle of heavy artillery fire. And the move could easily destabilize the global economy, as it would also invite massive retaliation from Iran, Handjani said.
“With respect to Iran, I would say we have now taken 90% of our exports offline. Well, we are going to destroy all the export terminals and oil production facilities of the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf,” he said.
In such a scenario, oil prices “could easily go up to $200 or $300 a barrel,” Handjani said, as vast amounts of the world’s oil and gas will be extracted offline for years.
“We will be in a brave new world whose impact is unimaginable,” he said. “But we have to take seriously the prospect of him doing this because he is acting out of the ordinary.”
The escalating conflict has already killed thousands of people and caused the biggest disruption to global energy supplies in history.
While people are suffering during the war and the resulting fuel price shock, fossil fuel companies, such as those that provided record campaign donations to President Trump, are reaping large windfall profits, Biggar said.
“The longer oil prices stay high, the more the oil majors will benefit,” he said. “And we’re already seeing[the war]being used as a justification to further expand U.S. drilling. So whether or not we succeed in acquiring Iranian oil, what we’re likely to see is the exploitation of oil resources that are currently profitable to drill.”
Expanding extraction will force the world to use more global warming fuels, making the transition away from oil and gas difficult. But Trump doesn’t seem to be “concerned about the future at all,” Biggar said.
Rather, President Trump’s statements emphasize his belief in “fossil fuel imperialism.” The United States has long been accused of using military power to secure resources it deems strategically useful, but President Trump said it is now “claiming the quiet loud.”
“He believes that fossil fuels are the cornerstone of the nation’s industrial strategy and that those who control oil will control the world.” “And I believe he will use very hostile means to disrupt the international order in order to get what he wants.”
