A global simulation study suggests that school closures due to the pandemic may not only have disrupted learning, but also widened inequality and reduced the likelihood that children will outgrow their parents’ education.
Important points
Achievement and mobility
School closures due to COVID-19 are projected to reduce educational attainment and weaken intergenerational educational mobility, especially in regions without relief measures.
underprivileged children
Children from disadvantaged backgrounds are estimated to experience greater learning loss during school closures because they have less access to effective continuing learning.
upward mobility
In some high-income and upper-middle-income countries, the proportion of children with more education than their parents is projected to decline by around 8 to 9 percentage points.
distance learning
Under more optimistic assumptions about the effectiveness of distance learning, inequalities could appear to be even worse, as wealthier children were more likely to benefit from distance learning options.
Research: School closures, learning loss, and intergenerational mobility due to COVID-19. Image credit: Zorro Stock Images / Shutterstock
New research published in journal Humanities and Social Sciences Communication We found that school closures related to COVID-19 can have far-reaching and long-term effects on educational inequalities and social mobility.
Global learning loss and long-term social consequences
Pandemic-related learning losses can reduce academic achievement by more than a year on average globally, disproportionately impacting disadvantaged children. Simulation-based estimates suggest that unequal access to distance learning risks widening existing disparities and reversing decades of progress in educational mobility, with lasting social and economic consequences.
COVID-19 has disproportionately affected people with low incomes, limited education, and insecure employment. Although short-term changes in income inequality are modest, concerns are growing about the long-term effects of educational disruption.
Inequalities in access to distance learning, which are closely tied to income and parental education, increase the risk of unequal loss of human capital. Although the economic impacts are well documented, less is known about the effects of school closures on intergenerational mobility.
Simulation-based study design and data sources
In this study, researchers used a multi-source simulation-based approach to assess the impact of COVID-19-related learning disabilities on long-term educational inequality and intergenerational mobility.
The researchers derived baseline estimates of educational attainment and mobility based on the Global Database on Intergenerational Migration (GDIM) across 153 countries. They used a cohort born in the 1980s as a proxy for current students.
The researchers quantified learning loss using Learning Adjusted Years (LAYS), which integrates access to education and its quality. They performed statistical modeling using country-specific data on school closures from February 2020 to February 2022.
To understand disparities in learning experiences, the researchers incorporated a World Bank telephone survey dataset from 30 countries. The survey provided household-level insights into how children are engaging with different ways of learning during school closures. These include in-person interaction with teachers, distance learning through digital or broadcast media, and complete withdrawal.
The researchers assigned a “loss index” to each modality and estimated differences in learning loss between socio-economic groups, particularly by parental education level. We then converted the learning losses from these simulations into counterfactual years of schooling and compared scenarios with and without the pandemic.
The researchers estimated changes in both absolute and relative mobility by integrating distribution differences within each country. Changes in absolute mobility reflect the potential for children to exceed their parents’ education. Changes in relative mobility demonstrated a degree of independence from parental background.
Together, these estimates provide a globally comparable estimate of the pandemic’s long-term impact on inequality, but the authors stress that these are illustrative simulations rather than projections. They also point out that the key estimates reflect a scenario without post-pandemic learning recovery or acceleration measures.
Consequences of global learning loss and reduced mobility
The analysis reveals significant and uneven learning loss associated with school closures due to COVID-19. The research team found a global average reduction in schooling of about 1.2 years. These losses were most pronounced in middle-income countries, where prolonged school closures contributed to the steepest decline. As a result, the proportion of children expected to outperform their parents in some upper-middle-income and high-income countries could fall by 8 to 9 percentage points, effectively reversing decades of progress.
Importantly, the findings highlight socio-economic disparities. Children from less educated households experienced greater losses both in absolute (1.5 years vs. 1.3 years) and relative (23% vs. 10%). The findings reflect significant inequalities in access to effective learning amid school closures.
Data on academic engagement showed that children with more highly educated parents were more likely to maintain interactions with their teachers. In contrast, disadvantaged students were more likely to be completely demotivated or to rely on less effective distance methods.
These inequalities led to lower mobility measured relative to parental education. Intergenerational continuity in education increased by almost 4% on average under some scenarios, and even more significantly in some countries. The largest increase of approximately 19% was observed in Mongolia.
Other countries with notable increases include Peru (13%), Mexico (9.0%), and the Philippines (8.0%). The findings suggest that within-country inequalities in access to effective learning amid school closures have had a disproportionate impact on mobility, with some countries experiencing steeper declines in learning opportunities than the global average.
Distribution-sensitive models demonstrated that within-country disparities in learning access are the main driver of these trends. The uniform loss assumption underestimated the true impact. In particular, more favorable assumptions about the effectiveness of distance learning further widened the mobility gap, as disadvantaged children were less likely to benefit. The findings highlight the risk that educational disparities will become permanently entrenched without effective corrective action.
Long-term effects on education and social mobility
The findings strongly suggest that pandemic-related learning losses may have a lasting impact on intergenerational mobility by widening existing educational disparities. Disproportionate losses among children from lower socio-economic backgrounds risk reinforcing cycles of disadvantage, undermining poverty reduction and limiting long-term opportunities. Without timely intervention, these disruptions could lead to persistent human capital shortages and slower economic growth.
This study highlights the urgent need for targeted recovery measures, including catch-up learning and re-engagement strategies for vulnerable students. Strengthening the resilience of education systems and ensuring equitable access to effective learning is also critical to mitigating future disruptions and protecting social mobility. Further research using longitudinal data is essential to track mobility outcomes and improve policy responses.
The authors also caution that the exact magnitude of the long-term effects remains uncertain because the estimates depend on modeling assumptions, surrogate cohort data, and survey-based measures of learning styles.
Reference magazines:
- Cojocaru, A., Azevedo, J.P., Narayan, A., and Montalba Taredo, V. (2026). School closures, learning loss, and intergenerational mobility due to COVID-19. Humanities and Social Sciences Communication. Doi: 10.1057/s41599-026-06967-w, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-026-06967-w
