Gaining weight during your life can have a big impact on your health years later. In a study of more than 600,000 people, researchers at Sweden’s Lund University looked at how weight change between the ages of 17 and 60 was associated with the risk of death from various diseases. The results show a clear pattern. Weight gain during early adulthood has the greatest impact.
It has long been known that obesity increases the risk of several diseases. In this new study, researchers instead looked at how weight change during adulthood affects health.
The most consistent finding is that weight gain at a younger age is associated with a higher risk of premature death later in life, compared with those who gain less weight. ”
Tanja Stocks, Associate Professor of Epidemiology, Lund University
She is one of the researchers behind this study, which is now published in eClinicalMedicine.
The study is based on data from more than 600,000 people tracked through various registries. To be included in the study, participants must have been weighed at least three times, including during the first trimester, at the time of military service, and as part of a research study. During the period researchers looked at, 86,673 men and 29,076 women died.
Researchers analyzed how weight changed between the ages of 17 and 60 and how this was associated with overall risk of death and risk of death from various obesity-related diseases (see fact box). On average, both men and women gained 0.4 kg per year.
The results show that people who gained weight more rapidly during this adult life course had a higher risk of death from the various obesity-related diseases the researchers investigated. People who developed obesity between the ages of 17 and 29 had an approximately 70 percent higher risk of premature death than those who did not develop obesity by age 60. Onset of obesity was defined as when BMI, a measure based on weight and height (kg/m2), first reached 30 or higher.
“One possible reason why people who develop obesity early on are at greater risk is that they are exposed to the biological effects of excess weight for a longer period of time,” said Huen Le, a doctoral student at Lund University and lead author of the study.
However, in some cases, the pattern was different for cancers in women.
“Regardless of when the weight gain occurred, the risk was about the same. If long-term exposure to obesity is the underlying risk factor, early weight gain should mean higher risk. The fact that this is not the case suggests that other biological mechanisms may also play a role in women’s cancer risk and survival,” says Huyen Le.
One possible explanation could be the hormonal changes associated with menopause.
“If the findings for women reflect what happens during menopause, then the question is the chicken and the egg. Perhaps hormonal changes influence weight and the age and time period at which those changes occur, and weight simply reflects what’s going on inside the body.”
One of the strengths of this study was that it was based on multiple weight measurements for each individual, which allowed the researchers to estimate weight changes over decades of adulthood. Most other studies lack such data and rely heavily on self-reported recall weight at a young age.
“The majority of weight measurements in this study were performed by staff, such as in medical settings. The predominance of objectively measured weight in our study contributes to more reliable and robust results,” says Tanja Stocks.
Increased risk within a population can be difficult to interpret. For example, a 70% increase in risk means that if 10 out of 1,000 people in the reference group died within a given period, about 17 out of 1,000 people in the early obesity group would die.
“But we shouldn’t get too hung up on exact risk figures, as they are rarely completely accurate, as they are influenced by, for example, the factors considered in the study and the precision with which both risk factors and outcomes were measured. However, it is important to recognize patterns, and this study sends an important message to decision-makers and politicians about the importance of obesity prevention,” says Tanja Stocks.
Today, many researchersobesity society”, the environment hinders a healthy lifestyle and promotes the development of obesity.
“It is up to policy makers to implement interventions that are known to be effective in combating obesity. This study provides further evidence that such interventions are likely to have a positive impact on people’s health.”
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Reference magazines:
Dear H.T. others. (2026). Weight trends, obesity incidence, and cause-specific mortality from ages 17 to 60 years: The Swedish Obesity and Disease Development (ODDS) pooled cohort study. eClinical Medicine. DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.103870. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(26)00117-3/fulltext
