Report supported by the Water Desk at the University of Colorado Boulder.
Santa Fe, New Mexico – “Severe.” “Deadly.” “Disastrous.” “Challenging.” “Record lows.”
Officials at the Rio Grande Compact Commission’s annual meeting on Friday consulted a thesaurus to explain the status of the river, which flows from southwestern Colorado.
Compact signatory states Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas and federal agencies operating along the river announced their 2026 outlook at the New Mexico State Capitol in Santa Fe.
The three states signed the Rio Grande Compromise in 1938 to resolve disputes over water rights along the Rio Grande, from its headwaters in Colorado to as far west as Texas. Further downstream in Texas, from the Presidio to the Gulf of Mexico, Rio Grande waters are managed under a different framework.
The agreement states how much water Colorado must ensure is delivered to New Mexico, and New Mexico must send new allocations to Texas. Climate change, prolonged droughts in the Southwest, and water demands have made this challenge even more difficult in recent years.
Colorado’s snowfall has been well below normal this winter, and the warm March weather hastened the thaw. As of mid-April, snowwater equivalents reached 13 percent of the Rio Grande Headwaters median. The Elephant Butte Reservoir in southern New Mexico is currently less than 13% full, and downstream communities and farmers expect to only receive water from the river for a short period of time this year.
Compact representatives explained how these combined factors that dry the Rio Grande impact water users and wildlife throughout the basin.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which manages reservoirs along the Rio Grande, says most reservoirs are less than 15 percent full. Summer monsoon rains are becoming less reliable in New Mexico. If the monsoon has an unexpected impact this summer, Elephant Butte could be reduced to 2% of its capacity by late August. Last year, in August, the reservoir’s capacity decreased to 3.8%.
Rio Grande Compact Committee meets April 17 in Santa Fe, New Mexico Credit: Martha Pskowski/Inside Climate News
“We have spent years preparing for an extended period of drought that has lasted for 30 years,” John Irizarry, acting area manager of Reclamation’s Albuquerque office, said in a statement. “We are confident that our team will work closely with all stakeholders to expand available water supplies as much as possible. ”
Dropping water levels in the Rio Grande impact the wildlife that depends on the river. Vance Wolf of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Albuquerque office reported on the status of silver minnows on the Rio Grande at Friday’s meeting.
This endangered fish is currently found only in the Rio Grande River area of central New Mexico. When the Rio Grande dries up in this region due to low flows, biologists rescue fish from the riverbed to help the population survive. Wolf said the agency observed a “population crash” for silver minnows in 2025.
“River drying may be the most widespread we’ve ever seen,” Wolf said, looking ahead to this summer.
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According to the Bureau of Reclamation, the San Acacia region began drying on March 27, the earliest day on record in the past 30 years.
New Mexico State Engineer Elizabeth Anderson said it will be a “difficult year” due to “dire predictions.”
“We all need to work together to manage water supplies to water users in the Rio Grande Basin and meet our compact obligations,” she said during her presentation.
Mr. Anderson discussed his office’s efforts to comply with the settlement agreement in the Texas v. New Mexico Supreme Court case. Texas sued New Mexico in 2013 over its Rio Grande water rights, arguing that pumping groundwater in southern New Mexico prevents the aquifer from replenishing the river and deprives Texas of water it is owed under the treaty.
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The states reached a settlement last fall, and Anderson said the Supreme Court would likely approve it this summer. Under the settlement, New Mexico must reduce groundwater pumping in the Las Cruces area to ensure Texas has enough water. Anderson said her office is developing a water rights acquisition program and studying options for managed aquifer recharge and brackish groundwater desalination.
The Rio Grande Compact lays out a complex formula for determining how much water each state receives. The U.S. government also recognizes the Pueblo Nation’s “priority and priority” water rights along the Rio Grande. However, although the Pueblo Tribe holds water rights, it does not have formal representation on the Compact Commission.
The U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) typically cedes some of its annual meeting agenda time to the Central Rio Grande Pueblos. Since 2022, a coalition of six pueblos: Cochiti, Santo Domingo, San Felipe, Santa Ana, Sandia, and Isleta have been demanding formal participation in the compact conference and a “seat at the table.”
Joseph Lucero, chairman of Isleta’s Pueblo Tribal Council and president of the federation, reiterated that call this year.
“Our message remains the same,” Lucero said. “We seek to develop a working relationship with the committee so that issues of mutual concern can be addressed.”
He said that in 2023, the commission directed its advisers to develop a draft protocol for “government-to-government” engagement with the Pueblo tribes, but the draft has not been distributed.
Lucero said limiting the Pueblo tribe’s comments to the BIA section of the agenda does not respect their sovereignty. He reminded the committee that Pueblo water rights “existed thousands of years before European invasion of our continent.”
“We understand that in difficult times we must work together.” “Together we must make good decisions to make the most of our limited water supplies.”
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Martha Puskowski
El Paso, Texas reporter
Martha Puskowski is based in El Paso and covers climate change and the environment in Texas. She previously served as an environmental reporter for the El Paso Times. She began her career as a freelance journalist in Mexico, working as a reporter for news organizations such as The Guardian and Yale E360. Martha holds a bachelor’s degree in environmental studies from Hampshire College and a master’s degree in journalism and Latin American studies from New York University. She is a former Fulbright Fellow in Mexico. Martha can be reached on Signal at psskow.33.
