A recent large-scale study found that African American adults living in counties with high hate crime rates are more likely to vote by mail than in person. This study suggests that taking advantage of the absentee option may provide a way to participate in elections while avoiding potential intimidation and violence in public spaces. The survey results are American political research.
The United States has an extensive history of violence and intimidation against African American voters. In the late 19th and 20th centuries, threats of attack and community hostility successfully drove many people away from voting. Researchers demonstrated that historical racial violence depressed voter participation in affected areas. In modern times, physical intimidation at polling places occasionally occurs, with an increase in hate crimes reported during major national elections.
Hate crimes are defined as crimes motivated by prejudice against a characteristic such as race, religion, or sexual orientation. The Federal Bureau of Investigation tracks these events on the ground, monitors trends, and determines the allocation of resources across the country. Research shows that hate crimes affect more than just the direct victims. These actions can cause fear and anger among a wide range of people who share the targeted person’s identity and signal hostility toward the community as a whole.
Political scientists Regina Blanton and Martha Kropf initiated this study to understand how local-level adversity affects citizen behavior. Both authors are researchers in the Department of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. They wanted to assess whether the recent availability of alternative voting methods changed people’s reactions to community violence. In particular, they questioned whether voting by mail would allow targeted groups to maintain political participation without exposing them to physical risks.
To test this idea, the researchers combined the two sets of information into one large study. First, they examined the 2016 Post-Election Collaborative Multiracial Survey. The poll asked thousands of adults across the country how they voted in the 2016 presidential election. Options include voting early, voting in person on Election Day, or voting absentee by mail.
Next, the researchers obtained case records from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. They tracked the location of every documented hate crime committed against African Americans between 2013 and 2016. The team mapped these crimes to the county level across the country. We then matched county-level crime data with individual survey responses to see if an association existed between local crime rates and individuals’ voting choices.
Researchers analyzed survey information from more than 3,100 African American participants and utilized statistical models to examine associations. Because many variables can influence how a person votes, the researchers adjusted their calculations to account for alternative explanations. They took into account demographic details, from a person’s age, education and health to marital status and employment. He also pointed to states that require a formal excuse, such as illness, to request a mail-in ballot.
The data showed a link between the frequency of local hate crimes and the likelihood of using the postal service to vote. In counties with the fewest direct counts of such crimes, African-American voters were about 10 percent likely to bypass polling places in favor of mail-in. In counties with the highest number of hate crimes, that rate rose to 26 percent. The researchers documented this association even when controlling for other community factors such as rural location and ethnic diversity.
Counties with higher population density naturally record more incidents of all types, so looking at raw crime numbers can distort interpretation. To address this, the researchers also looked at crime rates relative to each county’s African American population size. Using this per capita measure, the pattern showed an even stronger association. In areas with the highest concentrations of hate crimes, individuals were 33% likely to choose to vote by mail.
To verify that this association was not a random anomaly, Blanton and Klopf repeated their assessment using records from the next presidential election cycle. They combined data from the 2020 National Survey with hate crime statistics from 2017 to 2020. This follow-up analysis formed another large study with more than 4,200 participants. The 2020 assessment yielded the same basic pattern of behavior.
Voting behavior in 2020 was complicated by the viral pandemic, with unprecedented numbers of people across all demographic groups voting by mail. The researchers added a measure of local viral infection rates to the model to prevent the pandemic from skewing the interpretation of crime data. Even after accounting for disease density, increased use of mail-in voting among African American participants remained associated with higher levels of hate crimes.
As a final validation step, the researchers ran the exact same statistical model using hate crimes categorized for the study’s white participants and white individuals. The model found that the potential association between these crimes and how white citizens chose to vote was not statistically significant. The authors suggest that this contrast indicates that the relationship between neighborhood intimidation and mail-in voting behavior is specific to the targeted minority population.
Although this study provides extensive insight into electoral behavior, the authors note several caveats. First, their study relies on observational data rather than controlled experiments. This means that while statistical models can show a link between crime and how someone votes, they cannot prove that crime directly caused that behavior. Additionally, the Federal Bureau of Investigation relies on local law enforcement agencies for voluntary reporting of hate crimes, meaning official numbers may underestimate the actual level of hostility in some communities.
The researchers also highlighted practical issues with using the postal system as a safe haven for voters. Previous research has demonstrated that mail-in ballots submitted by minority voters are rejected at higher rates than white voters. Rejections often occur due to strict signature verification requirements or missed deadlines. If you rely on mail-in voting to avoid harassment, your vote is at high risk of being discarded due to a minor technical error.
The overall landscape of election administration has also changed since the data for this study were collected. Since 2020, several state legislatures have moved to introduce stricter rules regarding mail-in and absentee voting. Some areas have shortened the period for requesting a ballot or increased identification requirements to return a ballot by mail or drop box. The researchers recommend that future studies examine how these rule changes affect residents who may face localized hostility.
Overall, this study highlights how community environments uniquely impact marginalized groups. When voters choose when and where to vote, the calculation involves more than just convenience.
The study, “Voting by Mail as a Tool to Avoid Voter Intimidation and Hate Crimes,” was authored by Regina Blanton and Martha Kropp.
