As populations decline and age across developed countries, compact city strategies, which oversee the consolidation of urban facilities and direct residents to well-connected hubs, have become mainstream policies. But most evidence about its benefits already comes from compact cities. Little is known about the social costs that may be incurred during the compaction transition of small and medium-sized cities (SMCs), which are the most exposed to downsizing.
Associate Professor Haruka Kato of the Graduate School of Human Life Ecology at Osaka Metropolitan University examined the short-term effects of Japan’s Location Optimization Plan (LOP), a compact city policy promoted by local governments as a national government since 2016. The study used a nationwide quasi-experimental analysis of 1,595 small businesses from 2008 to 2022 to estimate how the policy was associated with total population, net intermunicipal migration, and long-term care. Insurance (LTCI) Certification Number. This provides an understanding of care needs and service burdens at municipal level.
The results showed that while the introduction of LOP was associated with a population decline trend across SMCs, no strong effects were detected on net migration between municipalities. Welfare-related patterns were concentrated in small municipalities with a population of less than 50,000. In these municipalities, plans that included government facilities and educational facilities were associated with an increase in the number of care support certifications, but the pattern of care certifications called for caution in their interpretation. Furthermore, these findings suggest that the welfare impact of compact city strategies is context- and design-dependent and that facility type needs to be treated as central to future policies. Smaller cities may need to adopt smart city principles that prioritize welfare and sustainable service provision on a case-by-case basis. In contrast, in medium-sized cities, we found no statistically significant changes in LTCI certification results between facility types.
Although compact city strategies are designed to maintain urban services in the long term, our results show that the transition itself can be costly. In the smallest cities, the consolidation of major community facilities led to an increased burden on care services. Rather than applying a one-size-fits-all prescription, these cities may need to prioritize the immediate well-being of their residents, be selective about which facilities to integrate, and combine integration with accessibility safeguards. ”
Professor Haruka Kato, Graduate School of Human Life and Ecology, Osaka Metropolitan University
The survey results are Sustainable cities and societies.
sauce:
Osaka Metropolitan University
Reference magazines:
Hiroshi Kato (2026) Short-term impact of compact city policies on demographic dynamics and long-term care insurance outcomes in small and medium-sized cities: Evidence from Japan’s location optimization plan. Sustainable cities and societies. DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2026.107351. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210670726002386?via%3Dihub
