Chikungunya (named after the Kimakonde word for “bend” and its characteristic joint pain) is classified by the World Health Organization as a neglected tropical disease. it is caused by a virus and spreads Aedes mosquito. Symptoms include high fever, muscle aches, back pain, headache, fatigue, nausea, and skin rash.
The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control estimates that by 2026, there will be around 33,000 symptomatic cases of chikungunya worldwide, with nine deaths, mostly in South America. At present, the virus is not endemic in Europe or North America, where cases are limited to travelers returning from tropical or subtropical regions.
But this is likely to change by 2100, a Chinese research team claims in a new study. Frontiers in Cellular and Infectious Microbiology.
Currently, 139 countries or territories, representing 21.3% of the world’s land area, are chikungunya risk zones. However, climate change models show that the virus will spread further north into temperate regions, particularly northeastern North America, central Europe, and eastern Asia. ”
Dr. Ye Xu, a researcher at Zhejiang University of Chinese Medicine in Hangzhou, China and one of the study’s corresponding authors.
outbreak of mosquitoes
Until recently, chikungunya was primarily transmitted by yellow fever mosquitoes. Aedes aegypti A species that thrives in human habitats in the tropics.
But when scientists studied the highly publicized 2005-2006 outbreak in Réunion, Mauritius, Comoros and parts of India, which sickened some 266,000 people and killed at least 254, they detected a new mutation in the virus’s DNA (‘E1-A226V’) that made it more compatible with an alternative vector, the Asian tiger moth. aat least Aedes albopictus.
Now, Xu and colleagues modeled the niche requirements of the chikungunya virus and its two mosquito vectors from tens of thousands of geo-tagged records from around the world. They predicted how the current range will change between now and 2100, based on 16 climate scenarios developed by the IPCC.
These scenarios, named for example ‘green shift’, ‘regional competition’ and ‘fossil fuel development’, outline five alternative pathways for global socio-economic development. The authors also incorporated 16 variables into their climate model, including wind speed, elevation, precipitation, and minimum and maximum temperatures.
Scientists aimed to identify new high-risk areas for chikungunya to give public health authorities enough time to prepare for future outbreaks.
“Our results showed that climate change mainly affects chikungunya by changing where vector mosquitoes can live. In our study, the Asian tiger mosquito was particularly important, explaining more than 70% of the predicted distribution of the virus,” summarized Dr. Yang Wu of the Guangzhou Customs Technology Center, also a corresponding author.
“This mosquito can tolerate cooler environments than yellow fever mosquitoes, so warming could allow it to colonize areas that were previously too cold. Once the right mosquitoes colonize, it increases the likelihood of local chikungunya transmission,” Dr. Wu explained.
Now is the time to prepare
The exact spread of the disease depends on the chosen climate scenario, but north-central Europe, northeastern North America, and eastern Asia were consistently found to be future hotspots. The authors therefore recommend that these regions should have mosquito surveillance systems and appropriate public health measures in place by 2040.
“There is no need for the public to panic, but the health system should prepare early,” Dr. Xu warned.
“For example, public health officials can act now by tracking. Aedes Mosquito prevention, training doctors to quickly identify chikungunya, strengthening mosquito management, and developing rapid response plans before outbreaks occur. These measures are especially important in temperate regions where the disease is not a routine public health concern. ”
By limiting further global warming and investing in basic preparedness, we can reduce the likelihood that future outbreaks will develop into large-scale infectious diseases. ”
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Reference magazines:
Zhang Q. and others. (2026) Using an ensemble species distribution model to predict the global risk of chikungunya virus under climate change. Frontiers of Cellular and Infectious Microbiology. DOI: 10.3389/fcimb.2026.1808175. https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/cular-and-infection-microbiology/articles/10.3389/fcimb.2026.1808175/full
