Recent research published in journals deviant behavior Mapping the warning signs and organizational flaws that precede a deadly attack by a man who identifies as an involuntary bachelor. Researchers worked backwards from four different tragedies to identify a chain of severe social isolation, untreated mental health problems, and missed opportunities for intervention. These insights provide a roadmap for recognizing the red flags of misogynistic extremism and deterring future acts of mass violence.
The Internet is home to a vast number of communities, some of which are united by common grievances. One such group is the “incel” subculture. This is a primarily online network of men who express deep frustration at their inability to form sexual or romantic relationships with women. This community exists within a broader digital space known as the manosphere, where extreme misogyny and male supremacy are common themes. Many incel forums act as echo chambers that promote highly distorted views of gender dynamics.
Within these digital spaces, women are routinely dehumanized and held responsible for the social rejection that men experience. Most people who participate in these online forums would never do anything that would cause physical harm. However, a small percentage become radicalized to the point of committing targeted violence against women and society as a whole. This escalation is often driven by a feeling of being violated, a psychological state in which individuals feel that they are being denied something they are entitled to.
When these expectations are not met, some individuals see violence as a legitimate way to regain their perceived masculine authority. Christopher J. Collins, an assistant professor of social work at Salem State University, led a research team that investigated the sequence of events that turn online hatred into real-world bloodshed. The team realized that violence is very difficult to predict. Threat assessment experts face high false positive rates because many people who exhibit warning signs do not actually commit a crime.
To improve these assessments, Collins and his colleagues wanted to isolate the specific historical and immediate factors that push at-risk individuals over the edge. To accomplish this, the researchers used a technique called root cause analysis. Researchers routinely use this method in fields such as medicine and aviation to investigate adverse events and prevent future accidents. Root cause analysis works entirely in hindsight, rather than trying to predict the future.
Researchers systematically construct a reverse timeline, starting with a specific tragic event. This process allows us to identify both the immediate triggers and long-standing circumstances that paved the way for the tragedy. The research team selected four specific cases of incel-related gang violence in the United States for analysis. These include the 2014 Isla Vista mass murder in California and the 2015 Umpqua Community College shooting in Oregon.
They also investigated the 2017 Aztec High School shooting in New Mexico and the 2018 hot yoga studio shooting in Tallahassee, Florida. The researchers selected these events because they occurred after the Isla Vista attack, an event that marked a modern-day turning point for violent incel ideology. For each case, investigators collected extensive public and official documents. They reviewed police reports, autopsy results, personal manifestos and publicly available online postings.
By cross-referencing these various sources, the team constructed a highly detailed timeline of each criminal’s life. This approach allowed us to categorize the different risk factors that emerged across the four events. The researchers divided their findings into two different categories. The first category included long-term symptoms that lasted for years, which the research team called distal risk factors.
The second category includes direct events and system failures that occur close to the time of attack, known as proximal pathways. All offenders in the study shared certain long-term risk factors. These include severe social isolation, extreme narcissism, and a deeply ingrained online presence. Instead of building meaningful relationships in physical communities, attackers spent vast amounts of time on extremist forums.
In these digital spaces, they were consuming and sharing hateful anti-women rhetoric alongside other extreme political content. Constant exposure to such extreme beliefs may have desensitized the men to violence. It also reinforced their distorted view of themselves as superior beings who were unfairly victimized by society. Three of the four had a recorded history of being bullied in their youth.
Mental health issues have also been a persistent theme throughout criminal history. All four attackers have experienced and documented suicidal thoughts at various points in their lives. Researchers noted that suicidal thoughts are incredibly common in the incel subculture. Assailants often viewed their acts of violence as a final show of power that resulted in their own deaths.
One of the cited documents explains that “the risk of violence extends not only to others, but also to incels themselves.” The investigation also revealed that three of the offenders had been prescribed psychiatric drugs at some point. However, according to autopsy reports and police interviews, they did not consistently take these medications as directed. The researchers warned that while mental health treatments aim to improve functioning, experts should be wary of inconsistent use.
Examination of proximal pathways revealed clear patterns regarding intervention failure. In all four cases, next of kin noticed the alarming behavior but took no effective action. Relatives often expressed concerns but did not report red flags to professionals who could have intervened. Even when authorities were alerted, the response was consistently inadequate.
Three of the attackers had previous interactions with law enforcement regarding online threats and stalking. Despite these encounters, authorities did not escalate the investigation beyond a basic welfare check. Police received reports of violent and misogynistic songs and online posts, but these warnings were ultimately deemed unresponsive. Researchers noted that this systematic failure of intervention allowed criminals to proceed with their plans unchecked.
In each case, easy access to firearms served as the final and immediate route to violence. All four attackers legally purchased the guns used in their crimes. In most cases, they purchased these weapons within the days or weeks immediately preceding the attack, indicating a clear pre-planning period. At the time of these shootings, the states involved did not have laws allowing authorities to temporarily remove firearms from individuals who displayed warning signs.
These states subsequently enacted extreme risk protection orders, but the lack of such orders at the time proved fatal. The research team outlined several limitations to their research work. The study relied heavily on public information, and some sensitive medical or legal details remained inaccessible. Disparities in media coverage and the sealing of official records can lead to an incomplete understanding of the offender’s exact state of mind.
The results were not statistically significant in a predictive sense, so the results cannot serve as an absolute checklist for future violence. Additionally, the small sample size of four U.S. cases limits the applicability of these patterns. The combination of certain cultural dynamics and open gun laws in the United States can create a unique environment for radicalization. The researchers suggested future investigations should also look at international incidents, such as the 2018 van attack in Toronto and the 2021 mass shooting in Plymouth, England.
The study, “Incel Perpetrated Violence: Distal and Proximal Risk Factors and Pathways,” was authored by Christopher J. Collins, Melissa G. Murphy, Katherine Reid, and James J. Clark.
