Rapid increases in food prices during economic crises tend to hit certain groups hardest. Urban residents and families with low levels of education are often particularly vulnerable. These price shocks can lead to long-term health problems, including stunted growth in children.
Researchers at the University of Bonn recently investigated these lasting effects using data from the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. During this period, the price of rice in Indonesia, where rice is a staple food, skyrocketed due to financial market turmoil. Research shows that this sudden increase in food costs has left a visible mark on children’s physical development. The findings were published in the journal Global Food Security.
Rice price inflation and child growth
To examine the impact, researchers at the University of Bonn’s Center for Development Studies (ZEF) analyzed data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), a longitudinal survey that follows households over many years. They examined regional differences in rice price inflation from 1997 to 2000 and compared those patterns with anthropometric measurements recorded during childhood and later early adulthood.
“We found that large-scale price shocks not only have short-term effects, but can also affect children’s physical development over the long term,” said Elsa S. Elmira, lead author of the study. “The price increases caused by the crisis increased chronic malnutrition and were associated with a 3.5 percentage point increase in child stunting. Not only will severely affected children remain shorter than unaffected children later in life, but they will also be more likely to be obese.”
Hidden nutritional deficiencies during economic crisis
The link between childhood malnutrition and increased risk of obesity later in life initially surprised the research team. Elmira offers a possible explanation.
“In times of crisis, families save calories rather than eat more expensive, nutritious foods. This results in ‘hidden deficiencies’ of important micronutrients, which do not necessarily result in the same degree of weight loss and slower height growth.”
Researchers continued to follow the same individuals until 2014, when they were between 17 and 23 years old. Among people who were between 3 and 5 years old during the crisis, the data revealed a clear association between early exposure to price shocks, body mass index (BMI), and the likelihood of later obesity.
Protecting children during critical developmental periods
“Early childhood poverty can have lifelong consequences. Impaired growth is easy to measure, but is often accompanied by impaired mental development and an increased risk of obesity and chronic disease,” says study co-author Professor Martin Keim. “Both undernourishment and obesity can increase in the same crisis. This highlights the importance of nutrition-sensitive crisis policies. Children, who are at particularly sensitive developmental stages, must be protected. If food policy is only concerned with calories, it can miss the real problem.”
An agricultural economist, he is a member of the interdisciplinary research area “Sustainable Futures” and the cluster of excellence “PhenoRob — Robotics and Phenotyping for Sustainable Crop Production” at the University of Bonn.
Urban families and education levels matter.
The study found that the effect was strongest in urban areas. While urban households typically rely on purchasing food, some rural households grow their own rice, reducing the risk of price increases.
Education also plays an important role. Children whose mothers had lower levels of education were much more affected than children whose mothers had higher levels of education.
“These results suggest that crisis assistance should not be based solely on the poverty line,” Elmira and Keim emphasize. “Price shocks can worsen nutritional quality, especially in urban areas and areas where knowledge about balanced diets is low, and the effects can be long-term and irreversible.”
Why the findings matter today
Researchers say shocks to harvests, incomes and food prices are becoming more common around the world due to conflicts, pandemics and extreme weather events. The Indonesian case provides real-world evidence of how economic disruption can lead to long-term health risks through increased food prices.
The authors caution that their findings reflect a statistical relationship. Over a long period of time, it is not always possible to completely exclude other factors that may influence the results.
