EElectrifying the world with electric vehicles, electric heating and cooling, and modernized heavy industry could be the next big step in phasing out fossil fuels and replacing 80% of the world’s energy, which still comes from hydrocarbons. Because using electrical energy is much more efficient than combustion, this move could save consumers and businesses billions of dollars and, by some estimates, could cut global energy demand in half.
For decades, electrification has been the geeky backwater of global climate action. But over the past two weeks, the topic has finally taken center stage at preparatory meetings in Bonn ahead of the upcoming UN Cop31 climate change summit.
Turkey’s Environment Minister Murat Krum, who will co-host the Cop31 summit this November, told the Guardian last week: “Without electrification, we cannot achieve the[Paris Agreement]goals. That’s why we have to go through this transformation. Whether you call it the missing piece of the puzzle or the most important tool in our toolkit, this is true.”
Turkey, supported by Cop31 co-chair Australia, has proposed setting a target for 35% of final energy to come from electricity by 2035. “This is the most important pillar of emissions reduction. We need to increase electrification in cities, manufacturing,[all aspects of life]and it will help us in the big picture of the larger goals[of the Paris Agreement],” he said.
Efforts on electrification were the highlight of two weeks of talks in Bonn, with little agreement on anything else. After a peaceful start to the annual climate “party conference” (Kop) summit, held at about the halfway point, negotiations had descended into a near farce by the final day, with some countries refusing to agree on language that would make decisions based on “the best available science”, even though this has been the cornerstone of climate change agreements for more than 30 years. The talks, which were supposed to lay the foundations for COP31, ended Thursday night with many issues unresolved.
Simon Steele, United Nations climate change chief. Photo: Bernd Arnold/Guardian
“We have seen ourselves sidetracked and stalled,” U.N. climate chief Simon Stiel warned countries as two weeks of talks came to a close on Thursday night. “We have seen geopolitical tensions rush through these halls. We simply cannot afford to reopen past decisions, renegotiate existing goals, or backtrack. What we need is cooperation, not intense competition.”
The biggest debates centered around climate science and the 1.5 degree target. In a series of talks known as “Research and Systematic Observations,” some countries, led by Saudi Arabia and a group of Arab states, including India, opposed language reaffirming climate science, arguing that research by scientists from rich countries makes up the majority of submissions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
But other countries said the goal was clearly to delay and derail. Shivendra Michael, speaking on behalf of the Pacific Island States, said: “There are voices in this room that are doing everything in their power to undermine science. Anyone who prevents us from mentioning science is not our friend.”
He added: “There are powerful interests that are desperate to protect their wealth and influence. We are seeing certain countries holding the[United Nations]process hostage while vulnerable populations suffer from heat stress, storms, drought and hunger.”
Many of the same countries also questioned the inclusion of the global goal of limiting temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius in several parts of the negotiating text, but faced fierce opposition.
“We know we can’t reach the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, but what we have to do is not give up,” President of the Pacific nation of Palau, Langel Whipps, said at a separate conference in Germany.
There was greater harmony around a “just transition.” This is a key challenge for campaigners, which refers to the need to ensure that workers affected by the transition to a low-carbon economy are supported and protected from exploitation.
Camila Mercure, climate policy coordinator at the Natural Environment Foundation, said the discussions were constructive. “While[the talks]highlighted significant differences between the parties, they also showed that there is a path to a meaningful outcome[of a just transition]at Cop31, and governments must now work constructively to achieve that.”
An electric van on display at an expo in Hong Kong this week. Photo: Kobe Li/Nexpher/Zuma Press Wire/Shutterstock
But climate finance remains a major hurdle as developed countries continue to cut foreign aid and prioritize military spending. Poor countries were furious that rich countries were slowing their efforts to meet a previously set goal of tripling funding for adaptation to the effects of the climate crisis. “What we saw was clear malice and unwillingness by developed countries to advance global goals on adaptation. You cannot implement the GGA without funding,” said Pooja Dave, Adaptation Policy Coordinator at Climate Action Network International.
At last year’s Cop30 summit in Brazil, an attempt to get countries to recommit to a “transition away from fossil fuels” failed, but more than 50 countries held their own meeting in April to discuss such a phase-out.
But the electrification goal, which had been barely mentioned in the police force for years, marked a gradual change. One reason for this is that electrification technology has lagged behind renewable power generation technology. But now China has moved to mass production of electric cars, and prices are coming down. Meanwhile, heat pumps have also seen a less dramatic fall in price, meaning consumers can save hundreds of pounds on their energy bills. Industrial processes are also increasingly being switched to inexpensive renewable energy.
The price of heat pumps will drop, saving consumers money. Photo: fhm/Getty Images
Electric technology is now poised for widespread adoption and is three to five times more efficient than fossil fuels, according to Oxford University professor Jan Rosenau. “I call it electrical efficiency,” he said. “This is the built-in efficiency of electric technology compared to fossil fuels.”
In a forthcoming paper, Rosenau estimates that the global transition to electrification will cut energy demand in half. Doing so would quickly generate trillions of dollars in savings around the world, freeing up cash for governments, businesses and consumers to spend on better purposes, from health care and education to defence.
Solar panels floating on Sakamiike Pond in Kasai City. Photo: Budhika Weerasinghe/Getty Images
Some countries are much more advanced. For example, Japan has almost achieved the goal proposed by the Cop31 Presidency of having 35% of its energy come from electricity. China is close to 30%, while the US lags behind at 22%, India and Brazil are around 20%, and the global figure is 21%.
But even measures to electrify the police force, widely accepted as necessary to meet scientific advice to reduce emissions to net-zero by mid-century, face an uphill battle in gaining acceptance within complex police processes.
Although the United States is the only major country not participating in UN negotiations, President Donald Trump’s influence was felt within the negotiating hall. “Saudi Arabia is playing a more obvious role[in blocking progress]in part because the United States used to play a role in holding Saudi Arabia back,” said one negotiator. Saudi Arabia is not alone. The Gulf states have allies working together as an Arab group, including India on some issues, Russia on some issues, and even Kenya, usually a strong supporter of climate action. “People feel like this can be done because they’re seeing what’s coming from the United States now,” the negotiator said.
