Demand for biofuels could soar by nearly a third this year, pushing food price inflation even higher and bringing the world closer to a global food crisis.
With oil prices soaring to nearly $100 a barrel in the wake of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, more countries are choosing to increase their use of biofuels.
Countries such as the United States, Indonesia, Brazil and Thailand are trying to increase the amount of biofuels made from a variety of organic materials mixed with fossil fuels. The Transport and Environment (T&E) think tank estimates that demand for biofuels could increase by 70% by 2030 if oil supplies remain constrained.
The war has also limited fertilizer supplies and raised prices, raising the price of staple foods for some of the poorest people in many parts of the world. Experts warn that the world may already be headed for a food crisis.
Kadi Listcock, energy and climate director at T&E, said biofuels would add to the pressure. “O-fuels can never play more than a peripheral role in the energy system without catastrophic consequences. The unintended consequences for food prices and the environment are enormous. Governments must pursue more sustainable alternatives to fueling cars.” Electrification. ”
While biofuels compete with food crops for land, around 1 in every 20 tonnes of fertilizer is used to produce fuel crops worldwide. In some countries, it’s much higher: in the United States, one-tenth of its fertilizer use is biofuel, and in Indonesia, one-fifth. “The more you burn the crop, the more fertilizer you need,” Listcock says.
Biofuels made from oil-bearing crops and grains supply about 4% of the world’s transportation energy needs. T&E estimates that if countries move forward with plans to increase their use of biofuels, that share will rise to around 6%. The analysis shows that it would be difficult to scale up biofuel production without competing with food crops for land and fertilizer, and that an area the size of South Africa would be needed to supply 20% of the world’s road fuel from biofuels.
It’s unclear how far the expansion of biofuels will push food prices up, but T&E’s chief energy analyst Simon Susan said they could rise significantly. During the 2007-2008 food crisis, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimated that biofuel use contributed between 40% and 70% of the increase in corn and soybean prices.
The United States already predicts food prices will rise between 2.2% and 4.7% this year, largely due to the impact of the Iran war.
Susan said encouraging the switch to electric vehicles could reduce demand for biofuels. Generating renewable energy is a much more efficient use of land than growing crops for fuel. The same amount of energy could be generated with solar panels, which occupy only 3% of the land currently used for biofuel production. And the high efficiency of electric cars is enough to power one-third of the world’s car fleet.
Biofuels are also carbon-intensive, producing around 16% more carbon dioxide than the fossil fuels they replace, contributing to deforestation and land-use change. Biofuels produced from waste instead could save some carbon. But Susan said: “Today’s global use is still very limited and such residues may already be used in other areas.”
