Pfizer, which is on the verge of better-than-expected first-quarter results and continues to grapple with an overhang in its post-pandemic COVID-19 franchise, is sticking to the sales forecast it set earlier this year, prompting at least one analyst to question whether it could have raised its outlook.
Pfizer’s total operating revenue rose 2% year over year to $14.5 billion in the first quarter, helped by strong sales of the blood thinner Eliquis, the pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar, and the breast cancer drug Ibrance. On Tuesday, the company announced that, excluding sales of its COVID-19 protection products Comilnati and Paxrovid, operating growth rate (PDF) was 7% in the same period.
Pfizer’s overall “strong” performance led the company to beat consensus estimates for first-quarter sales by about $641 million, according to a May 5 note from Citi analysts. Cititeam said Pfizer has demonstrated that its commercial portfolio can grow beyond the company’s historically huge sales of coronavirus vaccines and antiviral drugs, noting that the company’s recently launched and acquired products (including Padchev, Nurtec and Lorbrena) grew 22% on an operating basis in the quarter.
Nevertheless, Pfizer is sticking to the guidance it issued in early 2026, predicting full-year sales of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion.
That prompted JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott to ask during the company’s earnings call whether a strong first-quarter performance would influence Pfizer’s thinking about its revenue trajectory for the rest of the year.
“We have a philosophy of not making too many adjustments in the first quarter,” said Dave Denton, Pfizer’s chief financial officer, regarding the company’s continued guidance for 2026, noting that the company’s fall/winter COVID-19 sales are time-sensitive, making it difficult to make early adjustments.
“If you look at our COVID-19 series, it’s always back half-weight due to seasonality, so if anything, we avoided that risk by not raising our guidance,” Denton said.
“If we don’t have that, we’ll probably end up raising our guidance,” the CFO stressed.
Breaking down the numbers, Padgev said sales increased 39% to $591 million, which Pfizer attributed to increased market share in first-line urothelial cancer, as well as new sales momentum from the muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) rollout of its antibody-drug conjugate.
The drug received breakthrough FDA approval in November in combination with Keytruda, making it the first and only perioperative treatment regimen for patients with MIBC who are ineligible for cisplatin.
Blood thinner Eliquis also withstood pressure in the quarter, with sales of $2.2 billion and 8% growth despite price pressures and generic entry in some overseas markets, Pfizer noted.
Other products with solid trajectories in the quarter included Pfizer’s Nurtec franchise, which rose 41% to $353 million. Lorbrena grew 32% in the first quarter. And Xeljanz sales increased 34% over the three-month period.
Regarding its coronavirus products, Citi said Vaccine Comilnati’s sales continued to decline, with first-quarter sales down 59% to $232 million, about $205 million below consensus.
Meanwhile, sales of Pfizer’s COVID-19 drug Paxlovid plunged 62% to $186 million, $68 million below consensus. Pfizer attributed the decline to lower infection rates in the U.S. and abroad, as well as smaller purchases by governments abroad.
Meanwhile, analysts were curious about the current status of Pfizer’s M&A appetite after last year’s important deal for obesity biotech Metsala.
After all, Denton explained that the company’s recent settlement setting the schedule for generic competition in the U.S. for its transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) drug Vindamax gives the company “more confidence in delivering cash flow over the next few years.”
With that in mind, Pfizer currently has about $7 billion in business development power and continues to consider potential deals “constantly,” according to its CFO.
Pfizer stock briefly fell Tuesday morning, but was essentially flat as of around 11:15 a.m. ET.
