An estimated 15.8 million people in the United States live in pharmacy deserts. With limited access to health services such as hospitals and pharmacies, these people are at increased risk of death and higher rates of progression of preventable diseases.
New research published in risk analysisan individual’s choice of pharmacy was found to be influenced not only by proximity but also by the sociodemographic characteristics of the area in which the pharmacy is located.
Cal Poly researchers conducted a case study that combined mobility data from cell phone usage and pharmacy footfall patterns with demographic and socio-economic census data to examine health care access in Los Angeles County, California. The authors apply discrete choice theory to model consumer preferences and analyze demand behavior in states where access to health care remains an issue.
This study also stands out in terms of how it understands access to critical services from a data-driven perspective. Much of the existing literature focuses on potential access, describing how close services are geographically. This study showed people actually using the facilities and investigated actual access. ”
Daniel Hopkins, industrial engineering student at Cal Polity University
The study found that although nearly 98% have a pharmacy nearby, only 70% visit a pharmacy within 5km of residents (assuming individuals visit their nearest pharmacy). Furthermore, while more than one-third of low-income residents visit pharmacies in low-income areas, less than 7% travel to wealthier areas for care, indicating strong social similarities in human mobility patterns.
“Geographical access is necessary but not sufficient,” added Dr. Zhiyuan Wei, assistant professor in the School of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering. “People are not just going to the nearest pharmacy; they are going to socially familiar locations, which has a huge impact on the planning and allocation of health services.”
This finding is particularly urgent given the scale of the national pharmacy access problem. Millions of Americans live in pharmacy deserts, where access to pharmacies that provide essential medicines, rapid diagnosis, and basic medical services is limited. In California alone, nearly 2.5 million residents, or 6% of the population, live in pharmacy deserts, the highest number of any state. In Los Angeles County, approximately 25 percent of census tracts are classified as pharmacy deserts.
The researchers say their data-driven model can support decision-making beyond pharmacies, including grocery stores and other essential services, and is particularly valuable for understanding how access patterns change during natural disasters and other hazardous events that increase mobility constraints.
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