aAfter Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, millions of people in Pakistan suffered repeated power outages after the price of liquefied natural gas soared to record highs.. A severe heat wave and gas shortage caused by record price hikes caused power outages across the country.
However, people soon began to realize that there was an alternative. The falling cost of solar panels and generous government incentives to feed excess power back into the grid have made rooftop solar an attractive option.
“At the time, people who could afford to invest realized that it was much cheaper, more cost-effective, and better in the long run to make a one-time investment in rooftop solar power than to continue paying high electricity bills from an unreliable grid,” said Navya Imran, an associate at Renewable First, a Pakistani think tank.
Since then, Pakistan has seen an incredible surge in the adoption of rooftop solar power. Aerial photographs of Lahore city capture the scale of bottom-up developments. Nationwide, the share of solar power in electricity surged fivefold between December 2021 and December 2025, according to data from another think tank, Ember. Renewable First estimates that this number will reach around one-fifth of the electricity delivered by the nation’s grid by 2024.
Energy analysts say Pakistan’s solar power expansion has so far spared its power sector from the worst of the energy market disruption, as the Iran war disrupts the world’s vital oil and gas trade route through the Strait of Hormuz.
“We are certainly seeing some impact, but the expansion of distributed solar power in the country is providing a buffering effect against the impact (of the energy crisis). If solar power did not exist in the country, it could have been much worse,” Imran said.
The boom in solar power has reduced the need for gas to generate electricity, especially during the day. Before the Iran war broke out, Pakistan had diverted cargo from a long-term supply agreement with Qatar, citing falling gas demand. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) still accounts for about one-fifth of Pakistan’s electricity mix, but is primarily used to meet peak demand at night.
Analysis by Renewables First and the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research shows that as of February 2026, Pakistan’s solar power surge has avoided around $12 billion in oil and gas imports.
Hania Isad, an energy finance expert at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said: “Distributed solar power is a boon for Pakistan, at least preventing short-term supply shortages in the gas sector. Pakistan is a great case study of how renewable energy can avoid dependence on fossil fuels.”
Nevertheless, the country is still bracing for economic disruption as the Iran war continues to prevent tankers from transporting millions of barrels of oil each day, with the International Energy Agency describing it as the biggest supply disruption in history.
“Pakistan is highly dependent on the Middle East for oil and gas imports, with more than 90% of its LNG and oil resources passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” Isad said.
In 2024 alone, Pakistan spent more than 10% of its GDP on fossil fuel imports. Rising oil prices have increased pump prices by about 20%, hitting the transport sector hard and causing inflation. Disruption in the LNG market is also impacting the fertilizer sector.
Workers unload solar panels from a truck at a market in Rawalpindi in April 2024. Photo: Farooq Naeem/AFP/Getty Images
The government announced last week that schools would be closed for two weeks and half of civil servants would work from home as part of a range of measures to curb fuel use.
Pakistan’s Power Minister Awais Leghari told Reuters that the country’s “people-led solar revolution” and government decisions to invest in nuclear, hydropower and domestic coal power have reduced the country’s vulnerability to global LNG supply disruptions. But if the crisis drags on, he said, there could be further shortages in the summer when demand for air conditioners surges.
Imran said doubling down on investment to support the introduction of electric vehicles, updating the power grid and installing batteries that can store excess solar power and discharge it at night will help reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
“If anything, this crisis will encourage more people to adopt rooftop solar and battery storage in the future. For Pakistan, and for many other countries, the energy transition to renewables is no longer just a climate issue, but an energy security issue,” she added.
The Middle East conflict has left the region particularly exposed to soaring prices and fuel shortages, as 80% of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz is bound for Asia. Bangladesh, Myanmar and the Philippines have introduced fuel rationing measures, and hot food and drinks are disappearing from menus in India amid fears of a cooking gas shortage.
“Many of these problems could have been avoided if Asian countries had switched to renewable energy sooner,” said Ramnath Iyer, head of sustainable finance for Asia at IEEFA.
But the region has bet on a massive build-out of LNG infrastructure. India, Bangladesh and Pakistan alone have $107 billion in LNG terminals and gas pipelines announced or under construction, according to data from Global Energy Monitor.
In most Asian countries, the cost of solar energy and storage is already economically competitive with gas prices, Iyer said. “There really is every incentive for Asian economies to accelerate the transition to renewable energy. It’s actually a win-win, both in terms of availability and in terms of costs, including storage,” he said.
As in Pakistan, rapid expansion of solar power capacity in Vietnam could help the government reduce the cost of importing fossil fuels. Meanwhile, Thailand could save $1.8 billion in power generation costs by 2037 by expanding its solar power and battery storage capacity targets, Ember said.
In the Philippines, where pump prices have increased by 40%, combining rooftop solar power and battery storage could help reduce rising costs in underserved areas, areas that are off-grid and rely on diesel power plants, said Gaspar Escobar Jr. of the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, which installs solar panels on the roofs of government buildings, hospitals and other infrastructure.
Dinita Sechawati, senior energy analyst at Ember, said Asian countries were at a “really important juncture.” “We have had several shocks in oil and gas in the past… but the lessons learned do not seem to be taken seriously. Renewable energy, grids but also storage could be a trifecta solution to the region’s entire energy dilemma,” she said.
