Democracies are increasingly threatened by the climate crisis, with new analysis showing that elections are increasingly determined not only by political forces but also by floods, wildfires and extreme weather events.
At least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries have been interrupted due to climate-related impacts over the past 20 years, researchers said.
As risks increase, pressure on already fragile democratic institutions is expected to increase further, particularly in Africa and Asia.
The findings, released by the International Institute for Democracy and Election Assistance, an intergovernmental organization that aims to support democracies around the world, are the first to analyze how natural disasters affect elections globally.
In 2024, these risks disrupted 23 elections in 18 countries, including Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Senegal, damaging infrastructure, displacing voters, and causing last-minute changes to electoral processes.
Sarah Birch, co-author of the report and professor of political science at King’s College London, said elections need to be timed to avoid the foreseeable threat of climate change, noting that even the United States has signaled its intention to hold elections in November during hurricane season.
“Elections should be held when the likelihood of disaster is least,” she says. “In some cases, election authorities may also need to consider changing election schedules to reduce the potential for disruption from short-term disasters.”
The findings highlight more than 100 climate-related crises, including Mozambique’s 2019 elections, when Cyclone Idai flooded thousands of homes, schools, power lines and roads, forcing people to move to safer areas, and the report said these events “affected the outcome of presidential elections and the distribution of parliamentary and regional seats.”
Another example is the flooding that occurred during the Senegalese parliamentary elections in November 2024, when firefighters had to help bring election observers to polling stations.
Heatwaves are also a recurring problem, with at least 10 elections since 2022 affected by extreme heat. That includes last year’s general election in the Philippines, when extreme heat caused some vote-counting machines to overheat on voting day and eject previously accepted ballots.
During the 2025 midterm elections on the Philippine island of Mindanao, a villager collapsed from heatstroke while waiting to vote. Photo: Anadolu/Getty
Heat poses a particular threat to elections in the world’s largest cities with populations of more than 10 million people. Nigeria’s Lagos city now has the most days of the year, 89 days, when local temperatures are significantly above pre-climate change levels.
The report recommends that election organizers work closely with weather experts, environmental groups, and disaster relief and humanitarian agencies to reduce the impact of extreme weather events.
For example, election staff in Peru are trained in disaster risk management to help them respond to voting day disruptions. Next year, Canada’s Alberta provincial legislature plans to move the traditional May election date to October to avoid wildfire season.
“As natural disasters increase, training and contingency planning are more important than ever. Preparedness is key to election integrity and resilience,” said Ferran Martínez y Coma, professor of government at Australia’s Griffith University.
