In a 16-year analysis of the pharmaceutical industry, Deloitte for the first time found that obesity drugs are the biggest contributor to late-stage pipeline value, overtaking long-time leaders oncology drugs.
The findings are detailed in the consulting firm’s latest report, “Navigating the GLP-1 Boom: Measuring the Returns from Pharmaceutical Innovation.”
GLP-1 drugs currently account for about 38% of projected commercial inflows from late-stage pipelines and about a quarter of projected sales in 2025, driven by blockbuster products from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
Deloitte said in the report that this marks a “rapid change from 2022”, when obesity contributed just 1% of the predicted value.
But Deloitte warns that this masks some serious problems within the pharmaceutical industry, leaving the industry vulnerable to region-specific shocks.
Analysts raised their average forecast for peak sales per pharmaceutical asset to $598 million in 2025, up significantly from $510 million a year earlier.
“However, this spike in expectations is not evenly distributed across the pipeline; it is driven overwhelmingly by a small number of very high forecast GLP-1/GIP assets,” the analysts cautioned.
Many of these drugs have expanded beyond diabetes and obesity to areas such as heart disease, liver fibrosis, and even osteoarthritis, which account for more than a third of the total inflow, leaving gaps in other areas.
“When GLP-1/GIP mechanisms of action are removed from the analysis, the underlying health of the industry’s R&D productivity is significantly reduced, with a return rate of just 2.9% (down from 3.8% in 2024) and projected average peak sales of $353 million (down from $370 million in 2024).”
Deloitte said portfolio value was being squeezed into a “few mechanisms” resulting in a high degree of competition at the indication level, creating “significant strategic challenges”.
And if these drugs fail or their mechanisms come under pressure in trials, it could send shockwaves through the industry, given their extraordinary value.
