Over 500 people are killed in traffic accidents during holidays in the United States. However, according to a new study published in 2016, risk analysisthe real danger lurks early in the annual calendar. The risk of traffic fatalities and injuries is significantly higher during the spring break period (late February to early April) than during the Thanksgiving to New Year’s holiday period or any other time of the year.
Researchers Michael T. French, Ph.D., professor and chair of the University of Miami School of Health Management and Policy, and Grusin Gumbs, Ph.D., associate professor in the Department of Management Programs at Florida Atlantic University, analyzed 12 years of county-level crash data from the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles covering all 67 Florida counties from 2011 to 2022. The dataset totaled over 42,000 items. observation.
Florida was chosen as the study region because of its large population, tourism economy, and popularity as a popular vacation destination. The state’s traffic fatality rate also consistently exceeds the U.S. national average, making this an important and meaningful case.
Car accidents tend to be one of the least obvious spring break costs. Our findings suggest that the true burden on Florida communities may be much greater than what crash data alone shows. ”
Dr. Grusin Gumbs, Associate Professor, Department of Management Programs, Florida Atlantic University
Research shows that across all measures of injury, spring break is an extremely dangerous time to travel compared to other popular times of the year. Although deaths, nonfatal injuries, and nonfatal serious injuries all increased during spring break, the period from Thanksgiving to New Year’s Day showed a comparable increase in deaths but no significant increase in overall nonfatal injuries. In fact, non-fatal injuries from crashes involving young drivers decreased over the holiday period.
Young drivers (under 25), out-of-state drivers, and non-motorized drivers such as pedestrians and bicyclists all face increased risk during spring break, with fatal and non-fatal injury rates estimated to be 10% to 15% higher than baseline. This risk is especially pronounced in crashes involving out-of-state drivers, where fatal and non-fatal injuries increased by up to 37% during spring break.
Alcohol-related accidents during spring break did not show a statistically significant increase compared to other types of accidents. This suggests that traffic volume and driver unfamiliarity with local roads may be more important factors than intoxication alone. The risk was highest along Florida’s coast but spread to surrounding inland counties through connecting travel corridors.
Researchers say the findings should prompt states to rethink how they approach peak-season transportation policies.
“This study shows that targeting drink drivers alone is not the best strategy,” Dr. French said. “Density management may be a better policy tool. Mitigation strategies, such as expanding public transportation options and increasing road safety enforcement during spring break, may be more effective.”
Recent measures in Miami Beach, including drunk-driving checkpoints, increased police presence and pedestrian protection zones, reflect the collaborative approach researchers recommend.
sauce:
Risk Analysis Society
Reference magazines:
French, M. T., and Gumbs, G. (2026). Spring Broken: A Risk Analysis of Fatal and Non-Fatal Traffic Injuries in Florida. risk analysis. DOI: 10.1111/risa.70285. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.70285
