An analysis of survey data from the past five years of U.S. presidential elections found that while ideological differences between races have declined sharply, differences by education have widened significantly. Today, less educated Americans tend to be more conservative. The paper was published in PNAS Nexus.
The dominant political ideologies in the United States are conservatism, liberalism or progressivism, and centrism or centrism, with smaller currents including libertarianism, democratic socialism, populism, and Christian nationalism. Gallup’s 2025 average shows that 35% of Americans identify as conservative, 33% as moderate, and 28% as liberal, making conservatives the largest self-identified ideological group, but not the absolute majority.
Conservatism generally emphasizes limited government, low taxes, a market-oriented economy, strict immigration controls, traditional social values, and strong police and national defense. Liberalism generally supports a more active role for government in social welfare and economic regulation, stronger protections for minority and reproductive rights, environmental protection, and relatively permissive immigration policies. Many Americans who call themselves independents or moderates consistently vote for one of the two major parties, although moderates often combine both positions.
Traditionally, there are clear demographic differences in support for various political ideologies. For example, women tend to be slightly more liberal than men and are more likely to vote Democratic. Straight men are more likely to vote Republican. Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters also tended to lean Democratic, but that appears to be changing.
Study author Stephen Jessee looked at how the political views of different demographic groups of Americans have changed over the past few decades. He was particularly interested in the differences between people of different races and levels of education.
He analyzed data from the Cooperative Election Survey, which includes surveys from each of five presidential election years from 2008 to 2024, with a very large sample and a set of overlapping policy questions. The study collected responses from more than 250,000 respondents across five surveys. More specifically, the data used in this study included 32,800 respondents in 2008, 54,435 respondents in 2012, 64,600 respondents in 2016, 61,000 respondents in 2020, and 60,000 respondents in 2024.
In the survey, participants reported their race and educational background. A total of 132 unique policy items, including questions about taxes, abortion, immigration, health care, and the environment, were used to assess respondents’ ideology on the liberal-conservative continuum.
Results showed that in 2008, respondents who identified as white tended to be the most conservative, and respondents who identified as black tended to be the most liberal. However, by 2024, these ideological differences between racial groups had sharply diminished. This is primarily because black and Hispanic respondents have become more conservative on average.
In contrast, differences between groups by education widened. In 2008, graduates tended to be the most liberal, while those with lower levels of education tended to be more conservative. By 2024, those with less than a high school diploma and some college will become more conservative, while participants with college or graduate degrees will become more liberal.
This difference was most pronounced in 2020, when these last two categories became sharply more liberal than in 2016. However, in 2024, the ideology of respondents at all education levels shifted toward conservatism. Participants with graduate school and college education became, on average, about as liberal as they were in 2016, while participants with at least a high school education became even more conservative. Trends in educational polarization occurred across all racial groups, but were most dramatic among white Americans.
“The above results demonstrate that while racial ideological differences have declined dramatically in presidential elections over the past five years, education has become an increasingly prominent ideological divider,” the study authors concluded. “American ideologies have become more similar across racial groups, primarily due to a sharp shift to the right among blacks, but also because Hispanics have become slightly more conservative. Educational differences are increasing among all racial groups, albeit to varying degrees.”
“These findings, in contrast to the ideological positions studied here, and those of other studies that have found that educational polarization in partisan vote differences increases only among whites and not among minorities, indicate that American politics is being recalibrated not only in terms of previously recorded partisan vote shares, but also in terms of policy-based ideological positions.”
This study contributes to the scientific understanding of historical ideological change in the United States, which is shaped by events in current political life, the specific ways in which opinion leaders interpret their ideology at a particular point in time, and many other factors originating from society and the broader environment. Therefore, past trends may not predict future trends.
The paper “Ideological differences among Americans decreased by race and increased by education” was written by Stephen Jessee.
