As the UK prepares to phase out tobacco sales for future generations, researchers have found a sharp rise in illegal tobacco purchases, which could undermine the policy without stronger enforcement.
Research: Cigarette and hand-rolled tobacco purchasing patterns evolving ahead of smokeless electricity generation legislation in the UK: Population Survey, 2020-2025. Image credit: Yaokaya/Shutterstock.com
Illegal cigarette purchases are soaring across the UK, with young people and disadvantaged people most likely to turn to illicit sources, new research published in 2006 reveals. Nicotine and tobacco research.
Illegal cigarette purchases increase ahead of policy change
The UK government’s Tobacco and Vape Act 2026 includes a ‘smoke-free generation’ policy aimed at reducing tobacco use by banning the sale of tobacco products to people born after 1 January 2009. However, the success of this policy depends largely on where and how people buy tobacco products.
In the UK, tobacco products can be legally purchased from registered online retailers and in-person retailers. Age verification is required for both modes. Cigarettes are heavily taxed, and hand-rolled cigarettes have generally seen larger tariff increases than factory-made cigarettes in recent years, outpacing inflation as governments seek to narrow the tax gap between the two products. These taxes play an important role in reducing smoking rates.
Domestic tobacco taxes can be legally avoided through cross-border purchases, where tobacco products are purchased from other countries at low or no duty. Purchases like this You can avoid UK customs duty if the product is for personal use and falls within the applicable duty free limit (such as less than 200 cigarettes or less than 250 grams of hand-rolled tobacco).
Illegal purchases, on the other hand, refer to the purchase of tobacco products in the UK that avoid customs duties and other legal requirements, including contraband, counterfeit goods, and domestically produced illegal products. These products are significantly cheaper than legal cigarettes. These changes in product prices, as well as age verification requirements for legal purchase, are likely to modulate the tobacco purchasing behavior of UK citizens, particularly those who are under the legal age to purchase cigarettes and those who are socio-economically disadvantaged.
Given the significant influence of tobacco purchasing behavior on the success of the UK’s smokeless energy policy, researchers at University College London recently examined trends and patterns in cigarette and hand-rolled tobacco purchases by age, socio-economic status, e-cigarette use and country.
Researchers analyzed data from a portion of a representative monthly cross-sectional survey conducted in the UK from October 2020 to April 2025. The study included a total of 9,966 current smokers aged 16 and older who reported the source of their cigarette or hand-rolled tobacco purchases in the previous six months.
Young smokers are more likely to rely on illegal substances
Analysis of participants’ responses revealed that the majority (91%) purchase cigarettes or hand-rolled tobacco from domestic in-person retailers. Online purchases were rare among participants. The proportion of participants who reported cross-border purchases and illegal purchases was similar (14%).
Regarding purchase trends over time, the analysis showed that domestic personal retail purchases remained the most common purchase source throughout the study period. However, the prevalence decreased slightly over time.
Cross-border purchases have increased significantly, reaching 33% in 2025. Meanwhile, the prevalence of illegal purchases almost doubled between mid-2023 and 2025, rising from about 12% to 23%. Illegal purchases were more common among younger participants, socio-economically disadvantaged participants, and participants who smoked e-cigarettes. In contrast, cross-border purchases were more common among socio-economically advantaged participants.
Illegal cigarettes could undermine future smoking regulations
The research found that while domestic face-to-face retail purchases remain the most common source of purchasing cigarettes and hand-rolled tobacco among people aged 16 and over, there has been a significant increase in illegal purchases in the UK since mid-2023. Throughout the study period, illegal purchases were especially common among young people, socio-economically disadvantaged people, and people who both smoke and vape.
These findings highlight the need for continued investment in enforcement prior to implementation of proposed smokeless power generation policies. Increasing dependence on illicit supply routes could undermine the decline in legal access to tobacco and undermine the effectiveness of smokeless power generation policies, unless appropriate measures are taken.
Based on their findings, researchers estimated that around 2 million people in the UK bought cross-border cigarettes and 1.6 million bought illicit cigarettes between November 2024 and April 2025. These numbers reflect the prevalence of purchases among smokers who reported their source of purchase, not total market consumption.
The increase in the prevalence of illegal purchases may represent a change in purchasing patterns rather than a definitive increase in the overall size of the illegal market. Similarly, the increased prevalence of cross-border purchases may reflect increased opportunities to purchase duty-free cigarettes following the resumption of international travel following the COVID-19 pandemic and the extension of duty-free purchases following Brexit, rather than necessarily indicating a change in consumer preferences.
Future tobacco control depends on effective enforcement
Overall, the observed changes in purchasing patterns highlight potential gaps in tobacco control efforts that primarily focus on domestic purchases. Tobacco control policies should invest further in cross-border surveillance and customs enforcement, and take action against domestic illicit supply networks.
Although online purchases were less commonly reported by study participants, their use was high among young adults. Additionally, some major supermarkets in the UK sell tobacco products through online grocery delivery services. People who purchase cigarettes through these services may report their purchase as “supermarket” rather than “online,” which may lead to an underestimation of the prevalence of online purchases. Online platforms are difficult to regulate, so more efforts are needed to monitor and restrict online tobacco sales.
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