A shift to cleaner transportation could reduce ultrafine particle pollution and prevent more than 3,600 premature deaths in Montreal and Toronto, a new study led by McGill researchers has found.
Ultrafine particles (UFPs) are microscopic pollutants produced in large quantities by vehicle exhaust gases. Because of their small size, they can penetrate deep into the lungs and bloodstream, potentially causing serious health problems such as heart and lung disease.
Most Canadians are exposed to UFPs on a daily basis, and these pollutants are currently unregulated despite growing evidence linking them to increased risk of death. ”
Marshall Lloyd, first author, Researcher, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McGill University
He added that while air quality regulations have reduced many pollutants, ultrafine particles are currently unregulated.
The researchers modeled how different policies would change UFP levels based on actual emissions and climate change plans in Toronto and Montreal, including targets for electric vehicle adoption. We then used established population and health data to estimate how those changes would be translated into reductions in premature deaths between 2021 and 2040.
The results showed that the most ambitious scenario could prevent about 1,100 premature deaths in Montreal and more than 2,500 in Toronto, or more than 3,600 deaths in both cities combined. It combines:
- Rapid adoption of electric vehicles (approximately half of all vehicles by 2030, almost 100% by 2040)
- Accelerated retirement of older heavy vehicles, especially pre-2007 diesel trucks
- Decrease in overall traffic levels
“We found that even if we didn’t increase the number of electric vehicles on the roads, we could prevent more than 3,300 UFP-related deaths in both cities by keeping traffic levels constant and removing old heavy-duty diesel trucks,” said lead author Scott Weichenthal, a professor at McGill University’s School of Population and Global Health.
Cleaner air from reduced vehicle emissions will have the greatest impact in areas that are often located near major roads and have high proportions of low-income households, immigrants, and visible minorities, he added.
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Reference magazines:
Lloyd, M. Others. (2026). We estimate the reduction in early mortality due to outdoor ultrafine particles with increasing adoption of electric vehicles and other tailpipe-related emission reduction scenarios. Environmental science and technology. DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6c00907. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.6c00907
