An analysis of data from a Norwegian administrative database covering the period 2005 to 2017 found that unemployment appears to disrupt childbearing, but the specific impact depends on gender. When the female partner became unemployed, couples were less likely to have a first child, regardless of household income at the time of unemployment. On the other hand, the male partner’s unemployment hindered the couple’s progress towards having a second child. The paper is social science research.
Employment and income insecurity occurs when people face job uncertainty, irregular income, involuntary unemployment, or repeated unemployment. Such instability can reduce household assets and make it more difficult to manage regular expenses, debt payments, housing costs, and future commitments. But the psychological impact extends beyond the immediate loss of income, as employment also provides a sense of everyday social status, identity and purpose.
When a job suddenly disappears, people may experience anxiety, shame, helplessness, and decreased confidence in their ability to control their lives. Not knowing how long unemployment will last can be especially stressful because people are unable to make solid plans for housing, education, marriage, and child-rearing. Even with a generous welfare state that replaces some of the lost income, concerns about long-term career prospects and recurrent unemployment can still linger.
Unemployment tends to be particularly detrimental when employment is closely tied to socially expected roles, such as the expectation that men must financially support their families. Persistent anxiety can strain relationships, increase conflict between partners, and make separation more likely. People with savings, higher incomes, and better benefits are generally better able to absorb employment shocks, while economically vulnerable households tend to experience more severe and persistent psychological distress.
Study author Rishabh Tyagi and his colleagues studied the link between unemployment and fertility (i.e., who has children) in Norway between 2005 and 2017. This included the period of the global economic downturn caused by the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the so-called Great Recession.
The study authors note that Norway’s case was somewhat unique because it was less affected by the Great Recession than many countries, thanks to strong oil revenues, strong public finances, and a welfare system. However, we still experienced business closures and associated job losses, slowing economic growth, and increased public anxiety about future employment and income. Norway’s unemployment rate during this period ranged from 2.7% to 4.9%, which was significantly lower than most European countries.
The authors of this study used Norwegian administrative data from the Employment and Employee Register and the Population Register. The employer and employee register for a given year includes the population that is actively employed and receiving wages during that year. The data from this registry used in this study covers the period from 2005 to 2014.
The study authors linked these data to population registers, providing detailed information such as economic activity, education, marital status, and birth records. The study authors focused on partnered men and women between the ages of 15 and 50 (i.e., of reproductive age) who were registered residents in Norway. Data from population registries covered the entire study period.
The results showed that unemployment is generally associated with childbearing interruptions. However, the possible effects vary by gender and income. More specifically, when the female partner experienced unemployment due to factory closures, the likelihood of a couple having a first child decreased by 1.82 percentage points. This negative effect remained even after controlling for household income at the time of unemployment.
On the other hand, experiencing unemployment for a male partner was not associated with a lower chance of having a first child. The couple’s timing for having their second child was delayed because the male partner lost his job.
“The limited role of income suggests that the fertility response to unemployment is not reducible to short-term economic constraints. Rather, it reflects how employment structures couples’ life course planning and perceived readiness to parent. The fact that women’s unemployment impedes their entry into childcare, while men’s unemployment impedes expansion, implies that the convergence of economic roles does not parallel the convergence of the social meanings of unemployment,” the study authors concluded.
This study contributes to the scientific understanding of the link between work and family domains. However, it should be noted that the Norwegian case is special because the negative economic impact experienced during the study period was less severe than in other countries, and because Norway has strong welfare protections that reduce the negative economic impact of unemployment. Studies in countries with poorer economic performance and less comprehensive welfare benefits may be different and may indicate a more severe impact of unemployment.
The paper, “Unemployment and childbirth. A couple-level study of factory closures in Norway,” was authored by Rishabh Tyagi, Elisa Brini, and Daniele Vignoli.
