Even what many Americans consider moderate drinking is associated with an increased risk of death, disability, and chronic diseases such as cancer and heart disease, a new study published in the journal Science finds. Journal of Alcohol and Drug Research.
“This study provides the most comprehensive U.S. estimate of lifetime risk of alcohol-related mortality and morbidity to date, and shows that even moderate drinking increases the risk of premature death and disability,” said study co-author Katherine M. Keyes, Ph.D., professor of epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “We did not observe any protective effect of alcohol consumption, even at low levels,” Keyes said. His research focuses on the epidemiology of alcohol use and other substances across the life course.
“Even low-level alcohol use carries health risks,” says study lead author Dr. Kevin Shields, associate professor at the University of Toronto and senior scientist with the World Health Organization (WHO)/Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Collaborating Center on Addiction and Mental Health.
And that risk continues to increase the more you drink. ”
Kevin Shields, University of Toronto
Researchers from the United States and Canada aimed to estimate how lifetime drinking habits affect Americans’ risk of alcohol-related illness and death. After medical experts reviewed more than 7,200 scientific papers on alcohol-related illnesses and injuries to determine the risk level for each condition, researchers applied those risks to a large national health dataset. They then used statistical modeling to estimate how different levels of drinking affected long-term health outcomes.
The study provides more specific guidance than the U.S.’s new dietary guidelines, which currently advise Americans to “limit alcoholic beverages” without specifying a safe amount of alcohol to consume. Previous guidelines recommended a limit of 2 alcoholic drinks per day for men and 2 alcoholic drinks per day for women. The definition of “drink” varies depending on the type of drink, typically 12 ounces for beer, 5 ounces for wine, and 1.5 ounces for spirits, but also varies by alcohol concentration.
The authors say that while the new U.S. dietary guidelines contain a helpful message that “less is more,” they do not provide a quantitative framework. This study was designed to do just that across the entire drinking spectrum.
The researchers explained that they found that drinking two drinks a day, which is considered “moderate” from a social perspective, was associated with a significantly increased risk of early death from alcohol.
In addition to mortality risk, researchers investigated how drinking patterns affect chronic and acute alcohol-related diseases, including cancer, cardiovascular disease, liver disease, and injury, including the esophagus, oral cavity, and breast.
This study debunks the common misconception that alcohol can protect your health. Researchers did not observe any significant protective effects of alcohol on overall health at any intake level. They noted that low levels of alcohol may be associated with a lower risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke. But when you look at the overall health consequences, including cancer and other chronic diseases, those potential benefits outweigh the risks, even if you drink seven drinks a week.
The research team said the statistical modeling used in the study to determine health risks was based on “the best possible data.” However, they caution that this should not be assumed to mean that a person’s personal health risks are the same as those reported here. It depends on other factors such as lifestyle, genetics, drinking patterns, and other choices that vary from person to person.
Researchers estimated the risk of all health conditions known to be causally linked to alcohol and aggregated these estimates to determine total health risk. However, new studies are emerging showing a link between alcohol and additional health conditions, such as pancreatic cancer. “Understanding those relationships and how much alcohol contributes to those risks is an area that requires further research,” Keyes and Shields say.
This study provided a much-needed benchmark, finding that alcohol consumption of more than one drink per day was associated with increased risk in both men and women.
“By making thresholds clearer, people can better understand what levels of drinking are associated with increased risk and make more informed decisions when drinking.”
In an accompanying editorial, Robert M. Vincent, former deputy administrator of the U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, discusses his perspective on the behind-the-scenes environment in which this study was created. “The Report on Alcohol Consumption and Health was an express invitation to inform guidance on alcohol during the development of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2025-2030,” he wrote. “Even though the study complied with its obligations, its results were ignored.”
sauce:
Columbia University Postman School of Public Health
Reference magazines:
George, S. others. (2026) Alcohol consumption and health study: No protection at low levels, 14 drinks per week increases mortality rate to 1 in 25. Alcohol and Drug Research Journal. DOI: 10.15288/jsad.25-00435. https://www.jsad.com/doi/10.15288/jsad.25-00435.
