Millions of adults in the United States seriously consider shooting another person at some point in their lives. This represents a previously unfathomable large group at risk of committing armed violence. By understanding the characteristics and behaviors of these people, public health experts hope to develop better strategies to stop injuries before they occur. These conclusions come from a national study recently published in the journal JAMA network open.
Researchers initiated this project to fill gaps in our current understanding of gun violence. Medical and law enforcement records routinely track the aftermath of mass shootings, including emergency room visits and homicides. In 2023 alone, hospitals saw more than 116,000 emergency department visits for gun-related assaults.
Before physical harm occurs, an individual must first conceptualize the act of shooting another person. Until now, public health officials lacked clear data on how often people experience these thoughts. Determining the number of people who fall into this category provides a new metric for assessing the risk of interpersonal violence across countries.
Brian Hicks, a psychologist and professor of psychiatry at the University of Michigan Medical School, led the research team. Mark Ilgen, a researcher at the Department of Veterans Affairs and the University of Michigan, co-authored the paper. Together, they sought to characterize this hidden population and identify potential opportunities for intervention.
Their work is born out of the need to move violence prevention from responding to tragedy to proactive safety measures. By catching dangerous ideas before they become a physical reality, communities may be able to save lives. To do this, you need to know who has such ideas, who you are targeting, and what steps you have already taken to prepare.
To gather this information, researchers conducted a large-scale public opinion poll called the National Firearms, Alcohol, Cannabis, and Suicide Survey. From May to September 2025, they contacted adults across the country using text messaging and email addresses. A total of 7,034 people participated in the study and completed the questionnaire.
Because the initial survey sample rarely exactly matches the demographics of the country as a whole, the team used a statistical tool called survey weighting. This mathematical adjustment ensures that the final results accurately reflect the broader population based on age, gender, race, income, and political affiliation. By making these mathematical adjustments, the responses provided a reliable snapshot of the national landscape.
Data shows that 7.3% of U.S. adults have considered shooting someone at some point in their lives. This rate corresponds to approximately 19.4 million people nationwide. When asked specifically about the past year, 3.3% of respondents said they had these thoughts, or more than 8.6 million people.
Owning a weapon does not make you more likely to experience these violent thoughts. Data shows that individuals who do not own a gun report thinking about shooting someone at the same rate as those who already keep a gun in their home. However, the desire to commit violence has led some unarmed people to consider acquiring weapons.
Of those survey respondents who had considered shooting someone, 21.3% said they specifically considered purchasing a gun to carry out the act. Translated to the broader population, approximately 4.1 million adults have considered purchasing a firearm to harm another person. A smaller number of people, amounting to about 1.5 million people, reported bringing a weapon to a specific location with the intent of actually shooting someone.
The researchers also asked respondents who had thought of the shooting. Participants can select multiple answers to this question. More than 50% of those who reported these thoughts said they imagined shooting the enemy. About 25% thought of strangers they might clash with in public.
Other targets reflected a combination of personal relationships and broader social figures. About 10% of people considering shooting someone named a family member as a target, and a similar percentage named a current or ex-lover. Some respondents reported thoughts consistent with politically motivated violence, with about 14% thinking of government officials and about 7% thinking of police or military personnel.
Demographic analysis showed that certain groups were more likely to report thoughts of shooting other groups. Men reported these thoughts more frequently than women. Young adults experienced them more often than older adults.
Race and geography also influenced the results. Black respondents reported these ideas at higher rates than white respondents. People living in urban areas and Midwestern states were also more likely to report having considered shooting someone. The researchers noted that these demographics closely reflect the populations most affected by interpersonal firearm violence.
Income and educational background also showed clear patterns. Those with household incomes less than $50,000 and lower educational attainment were more likely to report having considered shooting someone in the previous year. Differences between political ideologies were not statistically significant. That is, Republicans, Democrats, and independents reported these thoughts at similar rates.
The study highlighted several behaviors that can serve as warning signs and opportunities for help. About 4 million people, or about 1.5% of the total sample, said they had talked to someone about the idea of shooting someone. Sharing this information gives family and friends the chance to intervene before the situation worsens.
Some took active steps to keep themselves out of harm’s way. Half of 1 percent of respondents said they had given their gun to someone else for safekeeping during a personal crisis. A further 1.5% said they would consider temporarily surrendering their weapons in the future.
These findings support the use of specific legal and policy tools aimed at reducing gun harm. Extreme risk protection orders, commonly known as red flag laws, allow judges to temporarily remove guns from people who pose a danger to themselves or others. In the 21 states with these laws, family members or law enforcement can request temporary disarmament based on the fact that someone has told them about shooting someone else.
The waiting period before purchasing a firearm is an additional precaution. Many unarmed people are considering buying guns to shoot people, so delaying the transaction gives them time to cool down. This delay may prevent impulsive thoughts from turning into fatal events.
In a press release about the study, Hicks explained the importance of the data. “Most people who hold these thoughts don’t act on them, but they are so numerous that the few who do cause tens of thousands of fatal and non-fatal firearm injuries each year,” he said.
He also pointed out that preventing violence requires addressing both harm to others and harm to oneself. “This does not include self-injury with firearms, which accounts for more than half of gun deaths. The more we can understand the factors that can reduce risk, the better.”
The researchers acknowledged that their study had some limitations. All surveys were conducted online and in English only. This format may have excluded people who do not have reliable access to the internet or who speak other languages.
Additionally, survey questions depend on participants correctly interpreting the wording and answering honestly. Even with statistical weighting, responses can contain unmeasured bias based on who chooses to participate in the study and who decides to ignore the invitation.
The research team plans to further investigate other factors associated with violent thoughts. Future analyzes will examine how drug use problems and mental health conditions are related to thoughts of shooting others. Scientists will also investigate whether these beliefs are associated with dangerous habits such as carrying weapons in public, storing guns unlocked, and shooting after drinking. This study provides a new baseline for understanding violent ideology in the United States.
The study, “Prevalence of Thoughts of Shooting Others Among U.S. Adults,” was authored by Brian M. Hicks and Mark A. Ilgen.
