Analysts at Guggenheim Securities predicted in a note to investors that established sales force and payer approval standards will facilitate the rapid launch of new indications for Travele Therapeutics’ Filspari, leading to peak franchise sales of $3.1 billion.
Earlier this month, Travere won FDA approval for the treatment of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). Sales of Filspari in its first indication, IgA nephropathy (IgAN), have increased gradually since Travere won approval three years ago, reaching $322 million last year. Guggenheim analysts expect Philspari to get off to a more explosive start with rare kidney disease FSGS.
Analysts said the FSGS launch “starts from a much warmer starting point” than the IgAN deployment. Travere’s nephrology sales force has three years of experience calling an IgAN prescriber base that closely matches the FSGS outlook.
Peter Heema, Travere’s chief commercial officer, said on a conference call with investors this month that the sales team was previously focused on the 6,000 U.S. nephrologists who cover about 90% of IgAN patients. Travere expanded its sales team late last year, adding reps targeting pediatric nephrologists who treat FSGS patients.
Guggenheim analysts predict that doctors will embrace the new drug because FSGS has more clinical urgency than IgAN. Nephrologists who manage more symptomatic and rapidly progressing patients should be more likely to put new drugs on patients as soon as possible than nephrologists who treat patients with less urgent symptoms.
With the launch foundation in place, Guggenheim analysts predict that Filspari will generate $68 million in net sales from FSGS in its first 8.5 months in the U.S. market. Filspari generated $29 million in net revenue in the 10.5 months following FDA approval of its IgAN drug. Guggenheim analysts said the peer consensus is that Filspari will generate $58 million in FSGS in its first 8.5 months on the market.
The gap between the expectations of the Guggenheim Museum and the broader analyst community widens over time. Guggenheim analysts expect Filspari to be close to becoming a blockbuster at FSGS by 2029, a forecast that is about double the peer consensus.
Travere’s ability to rapidly increase sales of Filspari in FSGS is particularly important as the opportunity in biotech indications is relatively short. The company aims to extend patent protection for Filspari, but current intellectual property only covers the drug until 2033. Guggenheim analysts predict that overall FSGS and IgAN sales will peak at more than $3 billion in 2032 and fall below $2 billion in 2033.
