A new study co-authored by two University of Wisconsin-Madison professors suggests that life expectancy for people born between 1941 and 2000 is increasing in every state and region, contrary to previous estimates that suggested a century of stagnation or decline in parts of the South.
The study, published in the journal BMJ Open and led by Hector Piffare y Aroras and Jason Fletcher of the La Follette School of Public Affairs and José Andrade of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, challenges recent estimates that paint a picture of progress in increasing longevity in the U.S. that varies widely by state and region.
A new analysis using new data from the U.S. Mortality Database suggests that the gap in longevity growth since the mid-20th century has been much smaller than a recent paper by Theodore Holford and colleagues at the Yale School of Public Health. The new study describes a more complex two-step pattern, rather than a simple story of steady divergence. That is, a rapid mid-century convergence in which Southern states regained lost ground with much of the rest of the country, driven primarily by improved child survival in the South, was followed by a second phase of largely stagnant convergence during the second half of the 20th century.
Our projections show an overall increase in cohort life expectancy from 1941 to 2000 for all birth cohorts, genders, and states. States are not expected to experience longevity increases equally, and convergence between states appears to have stalled since the 1950s, but we find no evidence that disparities between states are rapidly widening, as suggested by previous estimates. ”
Hector Pifare y Aroras, La Follette School of Public Relations
Holford’s paper argues that while many southern states experienced little or even decline in cohort life expectancy during the second half of the 20th century, states such as New York experienced rapid increases, widening disparities between states. A new paper challenges these estimates.
For example, Holford’s paper estimated that Mississippi had not experienced any increase in female longevity over 50 years, but the latest numbers from the BMJ Open study found it to be around seven years.
Because U.S. states had vastly different populations and policies during this period, the authors hope that by examining regional and state-specific trends, this study will lead to a better understanding of the key drivers of longevity. “Understanding that all states have experienced gains, especially the large improvements in the South early this century, helps shift the discussion to what led to those successes and why progress has slowed since then. There are real policy lessons there,” Fletcher says. In the context of slowing longevity growth in high-income countries, as suggested by a recent study by Pifare y Aroras, Andrade et al., this study adds to a growing body of research using birth cohorts and predictive techniques to reveal how policies and living conditions contribute to longer or shorter lifespans.
sauce:
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Reference magazines:
Piffare and Aroras, H., Others. (2026). Life expectancy growth across U.S. states from 1941 to 2000: A cohort study. BMJ open. DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2025-109623. https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/16/4/e109623
