In Japan, which has entered a super-aging society, the burden of medical expenses and social security costs is increasing. In response, national policy is promoting ‘compact-plus-network’ plans to encourage people to live closer to public transport and reduce dependence on cars.
A team led by Sayana Wakisaka and Associate Professor Haruka Kato from the Graduate School of Human Life Ecology at Osaka Metropolitan University, in collaboration with the Future Co-Creation Laboratory at Japan System Techniques Co., Ltd., investigated whether opening a new station could reduce medical costs. The researchers used a natural experiment created by the staggered opening of the Osaka Higashi Line, which consists of the southern section that opened in 2008 and the northern section that opened in 2019. By analyzing health insurance claims from the healthcare dataset REZULT, the research team applied a causal impact algorithm to estimate the causal effect of station openings in 2019 on regional health expenditures (RHE) per capita for middle-aged adults receiving healthcare. The analysis covered the four years before and after the opening of JR Awaji Station, Johoku Koen-dori Station, JR Noe Station, and Shigino Station, and focused on medical utilization within an 800 meter radius of each station.
At track level for the stations analyzed, the results revealed that openings were not associated with a statistically significant decrease in RHE over the 4-year period. However, clear differences emerged at the individual station level. At Shigino Station, cumulative savings are expected to be approximately 62,500.62 yen (approximately US$ 562) per person over four years. Unlike other stations, Shigino Station is a transfer point between the JR Gakkentoshi Line and the Osaka Metro Imazatosuji Line, and has enhanced network connectivity. This is thought to increase the frequency of transportation and walking use, contributing to improved health conditions. Furthermore, this suggests that the impact of station openings on health care costs is highly location-dependent and influenced by regional factors.
These findings make clear that opening a new station does not automatically result in health care cost savings across the corridor. However, when looking at stations individually, the results suggest that connectivity and local conditions may determine whether opening a station leads to lower health care costs, providing practical clues for health-informed rail planning. ”
Haruka Kato, Associate Professor, Graduate School of Human Life and Ecology, Osaka Metropolitan University
The survey results are Transportation and Health Journal.
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Osaka Metropolitan University
