New research published in journal personality and individual differences It suggests that an individual’s ability to cope with uncertain situations influences political choices. This study provides evidence that people who struggle with ambiguity tend to prefer stricter ideologies and, as a result, are more likely to support radical right parties. These findings highlight how fundamental psychological responses to an increasingly complex world can shape broader political movements.
Past research suggests that a wide range of personality traits influence voting behavior, but the exact pathways are still unclear. To investigate this dynamic, researchers focused on a psychological concept called ambiguity tolerance.
Ambiguity tolerance refers to how well a person can handle complex, contradictory, or unfamiliar information without feeling threatened. People with a high tolerance for ambiguity generally accept that the world is messy and complex. People with low tolerance for ambiguity tend to prefer to think in black and white, seeking clear rules and simple answers. Scientists have proposed that this particular psychological trait acts as a bridge between basic personality traits and political ideology.
“This study was inspired by both theoretical gaps and real-world developments. Previous research had suggested that personality traits were indirectly related to support for radical right-wing parties, but the psychological mechanisms behind this association were remained unknown,” said study authors Armus Lietz, a researcher at the German Center for Integration and Migration Research and a doctoral candidate at Goethe University Frankfurt, and Sabrina Jasmine Mayer, professor of political sociology at the University of Bamberg.
“We aimed to address this issue by proposing tolerance for ambiguity as a mediating factor. At the same time, the rise of radical right parties such as Alternative for Germany (AfD) highlights the social importance of understanding how people deal with uncertainty in complex social and political situations.”
They based their research on psychological entropy theory. This scientific theory suggests that human character is deeply shaped by how individuals deal with uncertainty and the anxiety it brings. According to this framework, an unpredictable world creates a sense of psychological turmoil. People tend to try to reduce this disorder in order to feel safe. The researchers hypothesized that people with low tolerance for ambiguity would develop a greater desire for certainty.
This desire for clarity can make right-wing authoritarianism, anti-immigrant sentiment, and populist attitudes very attractive to them. Right-wing authoritarianism is an ideological position characterized by strict obedience to traditional authority, aggressive feelings toward those who violate social norms, and a strong preference for conventional morality. Populist attitudes involve a particular worldview that supports popular sovereignty and sees society as divided into two opposing groups.
These populist groups are usually seen as pure, homogeneous ordinary people and a corrupt elite class. Anti-immigrant sentiment provides a simplistic way of viewing marginalized groups as the cause of social problems. The researchers wanted to test whether low tolerance for ambiguity leads to these three ideological views.
Ultimately, they sought to determine whether these views would encourage votes for Alternative for Germany, a prominent radical right party. To test these ideas, the scientists used data from an online panel survey conducted in Germany between November 2020 and June 2021. The sample consisted of 1,635 adults aged 18 to 74 years.
This group was selected using mathematical assignments based on age, gender, and geographic region to approximate the general German population. The researchers also intentionally included a high proportion of people with immigrant backgrounds to ensure a diverse range of perspectives. Participants then completed several standardized psychological questionnaires.
First, they answered questions designed to measure the Big Five basic personality traits. These traits include openness to experience, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism. Next, the survey assessed participants’ tolerance for ambiguity by asking them how they felt about unfamiliar situations and difficult perspectives.
The researchers also measured participants’ individual levels of right-wing authoritarianism, populist attitudes, and anti-immigrant sentiment. Finally, participants rated their likelihood of voting for the German option on a mathematical scale. This scale ranges from 0, which means very unlikely, to 10, which means very likely.
Scientists used statistical models to analyze the relationships between these different survey responses. They found that low tolerance for ambiguity was strongly associated with high levels of right-wing authoritarianism. Those suffering from uncertainty were also significantly more likely to express populist attitudes and negative sentiments toward immigrants.
“We were particularly surprised by the relatively strong association between low tolerance for ambiguity and right-wing authoritarianism compared to the more modest association with populist attitudes and anti-immigrant sentiment,” Lietz and Mayer told CyPost. “This suggests that right-wing authoritarianism may be particularly closely linked to epistemic motives related to uncertainty reduction.”
These strict ideological views were associated with voting preferences. Increasing right-wing authoritarianism, populist attitudes, and anti-immigration sentiment all predicted that people would be more likely to vote for an Alternative for Germany. Populist attitudes showed particularly strong links with support for this particular radical right party.
Scientists also investigated how basic personality traits fit into this situation. They found that people who scored higher on tolerance for experience and extraversion tended to have higher tolerance for ambiguity. People who scored high on neuroticism, which involves a tendency to experience anxiety, showed lower tolerance for ambiguity.
These personality associations are consistent with the idea that sociable and open people are more willing to explore unknown situations. This exploration may help you build a tolerance for complexity over time. However, the researchers noted that the effect size linking basic personality traits and ambiguity tolerance was very small.
This suggests that while personality plays a role, it does not determine an individual’s ability to handle uncertainty on their own. The most robust finding is that there is a strong association between low tolerance for ambiguity and the adoption of rigid political ideologies. These ideologies ultimately predict increased support for radical right candidates.
“Our findings suggest that support for radical right parties is related not only to ideology itself, but also to how individuals deal with uncertainty,” Lietz and Mayer explained. “Low tolerance for ambiguity is associated with a strong preference for clear, unambiguous answers and structured worldviews. This increased desire for certainty, in turn, leads to higher levels of right-wing authoritarianism, populist attitudes, anti-immigrant sentiment, and ultimately to an increased propensity to vote for radical right-wing parties such as Alternative for Germany (AfD).”
While these findings provide insights into political behavior, scientists warn against certain misconceptions. First, this study relied on observational data, so it did not prove a direct cause-and-effect relationship. It is also quite possible that holding a rigid political ideology reduces one’s tolerance for ambiguity over time.
Furthermore, low tolerance for ambiguity is a perfectly normal psychological trait. Researchers stress that this trait should not be treated as a psychological defect. Similarly, the Big Five basic personality traits are neither inherently good nor bad.
“In line with psychological entropy theory, the association between personality traits and ambiguity tolerance can be understood as reflecting differences in motivational tendencies,” the researchers said. “Certain traits may make a person more likely to enter and engage in new or uncertain situations, thereby increasing the chance that tolerance for ambiguity will increase over time. In this sense, personality traits may shape the opportunity to learn tolerance for ambiguity, rather than directly determining it.”
This data was also collected during the early stages of the global pandemic, a time of unusually high social uncertainty. This unique historical context may have strengthened the relationship between the desire for certainty and political ideology. This study also relied on a quota-based online sample.
Looking ahead, scientists plan to use longitudinal studies that follow individuals over many years to better understand the causal relationships at work. They also want to test these psychological models in other countries to see if the same patterns hold true across cultures.
“Understanding how people deal with uncertainty remains central to explaining contemporary political polarization and ideological change,” Lietz and Mayer added. “This research bridges personality psychology and political behavior research by emphasizing epistemological motivations, particularly the need for certainty as a key link between personality and ideology. This research highlights the importance of psychological responses to uncertainty in understanding the resilience of democracies and the functioning of societies in complex times.”
The study, “Navigating Uncertainty: The Role of Tolerance for Ambiguity in Linking Personality Traits to Ideological Variables and Radical Right Voting,” was authored by Alms Lietz and Sabrina Jasmine Mayer.
