If global temperatures rose by 2°C, the number of countries experiencing severe food insecurity could almost triple to 24, research shows.
The climate crisis will have a disproportionate impact on food systems in poor countries, widening the gap between the weakest and least vulnerable countries, according to an analysis by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).
Global warming increases the risk of food insecurity around the world, but food systems in low-income countries are projected to deteriorate seven times faster than those in rich countries.
Ritu Bharadwaj, a researcher at IIED and author of the study, said: “Countries that already face poverty, fragility and limited safety nets are projected to experience the fastest deterioration in their food systems, despite contributing the least to global emissions.”
“Currently, almost 59% of the world’s population already lives in countries with below-average food security, and our projections show that climate change is likely to widen this gap further.”
This can be prevented by “strengthening social protection systems that can respond quickly to climate shocks, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, and improving water and soil management,” Bharadwaj said.
He added: “Today’s food systems are deeply interconnected. Climate shocks in one major production region can ripple through global supply chains and cause price fluctuations in other regions. Even if high-income countries remain relatively food secure, they are not immune to the effects of climate instability on global food markets.”
IIED has created a food security index for 162 countries. It measures the systemic vulnerability of countries’ entire food systems and estimates how climate change will affect them under three scenarios if global temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees and 4 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
The index also assesses the impact of the climate crisis on the four “pillars” of the food system – availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability – and shows that risks are not evenly distributed across the four pillars.
Sustainability and utilization are the most climate-sensitive pillars, which means that early signs of climate damage first appear in water, sanitation and health systems, leaving people malnourished even when food is physically present. Increasing climate risks will also be associated with reduced access to food, including higher prices and market disruptions.
Residents walk through floodwaters to cross a road near Maputo, Mozambique, in January. Photo: Emidio Jozin/AFP/Getty Images
Some of the worst-hit countries include Somalia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Haiti, and Mozambique. The analysis predicts that under a 2°C heating scenario, food insecurity would increase by more than 30% in these countries, leading to acute crises and hunger, while it would increase by an average of 3% in high-income countries.
Under the 2C scenario, food insecurity is projected to increase by an average of 22% across low-income countries. Low-income countries account for 1% of global emissions, while high-income and upper-middle-income countries account for more than 80%.
“High-income countries will suffer large-scale agricultural shocks, but they have the wealth to find a way out in global markets from domestic crop failures,” Bharadwaj said.
He also referred to a report by the UK intelligence chiefs on the national security threat posed by the climate crisis, saying: “When fragile and conflict-affected states face regime collapse, the consequences are massive global instability, state collapse and forced displacement. These are the national security threats that defense secretaries are warning about.”
