Recent research provides evidence that a seemingly trivial temporary delay in regular paychecks can increase women’s risk of intimate partner violence. This finding suggests that the emotional stress of straining household finances for extra days can negatively impact relationship dynamics. This study Journal of Health Economics.
Intimate partner violence is a pervasive public health challenge in the United States. More than a third of women in this country have experienced physical violence, rape, or stalking by an intimate partner at some point in their lives. The effects of this violence go far beyond direct physical harm. Survivors tend to have higher rates of chronic disease, mental health conditions, and early mortality.
Olivia Masi, postdoctoral fellow at Aalto University and research fellow at the AXA Gender Institute at Bocconi University, and Chiara Sant’Antonio, a lecturer at the University of Bath, designed the study to understand how temporary disruptions to economic stability affect household security.
“A vast body of research shows that major economic shocks, such as job losses or recessions, can increase intimate partner violence,” Masi and Santantonio said. “We wanted to understand whether much smaller and more common forms of economic strain could also be a problem. We were particularly interested in the everyday frictions that households face when the timing of income and expenditures do not match, even if total income and employment do not change.”
To investigate this, the authors conducted an analysis based on semi-monthly payment schedules common in the private sector. Under this system, workers receive wages twice a month, usually on the 15th and on the last day of the month. If these regular paydays fall on a weekend or holiday, companies will typically accelerate the payday and issue the paycheck on the Friday before.
While receiving your money sooner may seem like a positive thing, it changes your timeline until your next paycheck. Subsequent payment periods will be longer than usual, meaning households will have to pay the same amount over more days. Researchers refer to these long periods of time as days of financial hardship or stretch. Because these calendar changes occur randomly, they provide an objective way to measure the impact of unexpected financial burdens.
To test their hypothesis, the scientists analyzed monthly records from the National Crime Victimization Survey from 1995 to 2019. Their main dataset included 3,545,586 observations from 221,436 women. They focused specifically on female respondents in couples where at least one partner works in the private sector. Because these people are most likely to experience semi-annual pay schedule adjustments.
This analysis reveals that short-term financial hardship significantly increases the incidence of intimate partner violence. The findings show that short-term income delays can trigger measurable changes in household security.
“What surprised us most was that such a small and temporary shock could have a measurable impact,” Masi and Sant’Antonio told SciPost. “What we’re looking at is not job losses or significant reductions in income, but rather short periods of time where households have to squeeze into their finances for a few more days.”
“Under our recommended specifications, each additional day of economic ‘stretch’ increases the odds of intimate partner violence by approximately 20 percent compared to a month of no distress,” the authors explained. “This is a relative increase, and the absolute change is small because the baseline probability of monthly damage is low.”
This effect tends to be strongest when extended pay periods occur at the end of the month. This pattern is consistent with the typical billing cycle for most households.
Masi and Sant’Antonio added: “What was also striking was that the effects were particularly pronounced when the stretch occurred toward the end of the month.” “This is consistent with the idea that financial pressures can be particularly pronounced depending on the timing of non-deferred expenses such as rent and bills.”
The emotional and financial toll of these delayed paychecks hits certain groups harder than others. The increase in violence was concentrated in households that were already vulnerable to economic strain. For example, women in households with annual incomes of less than $25,000 experienced much higher risks during these extended pay periods. Households with children were also at increased risk. This is probably because families with children face more basic economic needs.
The researchers also looked at whether it mattered who experienced pay delays. They found no significant effect in couples where only one partner worked in the private sector. The greatest increase in violence occurred when both partners worked in the private sector. This suggests that the overall size and intensity of the financial shock are the main drivers of the resulting stress.
To understand the day-to-day behavior behind these numbers, Masi and Santantonio examined purchasing data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey from 1998 to 2011. We also analyzed daily life information from the American Time Use Survey from 2003 to 2019. These additional data sets allowed researchers to precisely track how families adapted to longer pay periods.
With longer pay periods, households significantly reduced spending on instant consumption items such as restaurant meals and leisure activities. At the same time, individuals spent about two more minutes per day actively researching their purchases and comparing prices between stores. Additionally, couples are spending more time with their children, indicating a possible change in household routines and a reassignment of child-rearing responsibilities.
“We also want to preempt the interpretation that the effects are driven by a general increase in crime or increased drug use,” the scientists said. “We do not see comparable increases in other crimes, and our spending analysis shows no increase in spending on alcohol or tobacco during this period.”
“The important point is that economic hardship does not necessarily have to be dramatic or permanent to have serious consequences,” Masi and Sant’Antonio said. “Any delay or disruption in household mobility can increase stress within the household and increase the risk of intimate partner violence.”
“More broadly, this study shows that the timing and predictability of money are important,” the scientists added. “Payment schedules, bills, rent, and the ability to plan are not just technical details of household finances; they can shape family stress and, in vulnerable situations, women’s security.”
“However, their practical significance is important because these shocks occur repeatedly and affect a non-negligible proportion of households,” the authors explained. “Small increases in risk can translate into meaningful social costs when applied to large populations and repeated over long periods of time.”
Although this study provides an objective picture of financial stress, there are some limitations to keep in mind. The national survey data used does not specify exactly which respondents received paychecks on a semi-monthly schedule.
“We therefore identify potentially infected households based on whether at least one partner works in the private sector; therefore, our estimates should be interpreted as an intention-to-treat effect,” Masi and Santantonio cautioned. This means that rather than looking at each individual’s exact payday, the calculation measures the impact on the broader group likely to be affected by the schedule change.
Readers should also avoid interpreting these findings as evidence that financial problems are the sole cause of domestic violence.
“Another caveat is that our findings should not be interpreted to mean that economic hardship is the only or primary cause of intimate partner violence,” the researchers said. “IPV is a complex phenomenon with many determinants. Our contribution is to show that short-term liquidity pressures can be one factor that worsens household dynamics and increases risk.”
“The central message of this paper is that domestic violence is not divorced from the economic fabric of everyday life,” they added. “Of course, economic stress does not explain everything, but it can exacerbate vulnerable situations and turn temporary hardships into risks to women’s safety.”
Future research could expand on this theme by examining downstream criminal justice outcomes, such as actual arrest and incarceration rates during these extended pay periods. Furthermore, exploring how different banking interventions can alleviate this stress may provide practical solutions for vulnerable families.
“One goal is to better understand what policies and institutional arrangements can alleviate these short-term fiscal pressures,” the scientists said. “For example, more predictable payment systems, timely emergency support, or short-term liquidity tools could be important not only for material well-being but also for household security.”
“This also suggests that policies aimed at reducing financial instability may have benefits beyond standard economic outcomes,” Masi and Sant’Antonio said. “Making payments more regular and helping households bridge short liquidity gaps could reduce invisible sources of conflict.”
“A broader next step is to continue studying how the organization of economic life affects family relationships,” the researchers concluded. “While many policies are primarily evaluated through income and employment outcomes, our results suggest that timing, uncertainty, and liquidity constraints can also have important social consequences.”
The study, “Overextended: Economic Hardship and Intimate Partner Violence in the United States,” was authored by Olivia Masi and Chiara Santantonio.
