A new study has issued a stark warning about major changes in Africa’s forests. Once a key part of the fight against climate change, these forests now emit more carbon than they absorb.
The results of this study are scientific reportled by scientists from the National Earth Observation Centers at the Universities of Leicester, Sheffield and Edinburgh Universities. The study shows that forests across the continent, long known to pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, have reversed course and are now contributing to carbon dioxide emissions.
This change began after 2010 and highlights the growing urgency of increasing global efforts to protect forests. It also comes at a time when forest conservation was high on the agenda at the COP30 climate summit held in Brazil last week.
Satellite data reveals 10 years of forest loss
To understand what has changed, researchers used advanced satellite observations and machine learning to analyze more than a decade of forest data. They focused on above-ground forest biomass, which reflects how much carbon is stored in trees and other vegetation.
The results indicate a clear turning point. From 2007 to 2010, African forests added carbon. But then widespread deforestation and rainforest degradation forced this system into decline.
From 2010 to 2017, Africa lost approximately 106 billion kilograms of forest biomass each year. This is roughly equivalent to the weight of 106 million cars. The greatest losses occurred in tropical moist broad-leaved forests, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, and parts of West Africa. Some savannah areas saw increases due to shrub growth, but the increases were too small to compensate for the declines.
A wake-up call for global climate policy
Professor Heiko Balzter, senior author and director of the Institute for Environmental Futures at the University of Leicester, emphasized the global impact. “This is an important wake-up call for global climate policy,” he said. “The fact that Africa’s forests are no longer absorbing carbon means the rest of the world and the world as a whole will need to make even deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to stay within the Paris Agreement’s 2°C target and avoid catastrophic climate change. To halt global deforestation for good, we must rapidly scale up climate financing for tropical forest permanent facilities.”
Advanced mapping of forest carbon change
The study combines data from NASA’s GEDI laser instrument and Japan’s ALOS radar satellite with machine learning techniques and thousands of ground-based forest measurements. This approach allowed the researchers to create the most detailed map yet of biomass change across Africa, capturing patterns of deforestation at the local level over a full decade.
The findings were announced at the same time as the COP30 Presidency launched the Tropical Forest Perpetual Facility. The initiative aims to raise billions of pounds to pay countries to protect tropical forests and support climate finance.
But the study reveals that without immediate action to halt deforestation, the world could lose one of its most important natural systems for storing carbon.
Solutions to reverse forest loss
Co-author Dr Neza Asil, from the National Earth Observation Center at the Institute for the Environment and Future Research at the University of Leicester, pointed to measures that could help change this trend. She said: “Strengthening forest governance, cracking down on illegal logging and large-scale restoration programs like AFR100, which aims to restore 100 million hectares of Africa’s landscapes by 2030, can make a big difference in reversing the damage.”
Global impact on climate change targets
Dr Pedro Rodríguez Veiga, who led much of the analysis at NCEO and the University of Leicester and now works at Silvera, highlighted the wider implications. He said: “This study provides important risk data for Silvera and the wider Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM), showing that deforestation is not just a local or regional issue, but is changing the global carbon balance. If Africa’s forests become a permanent source of carbon, it will be harder to meet global climate goals. Governments, the private sector and NGOs need to work together to fund and support efforts to protect and enhance forests.”
This project was supported by public funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the European Space Agency (ESA) and a network of partner agencies across Europe and Africa.
